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Re: *~1Best~* post# 13774

Sunday, 01/18/2009 1:02:20 PM

Sunday, January 18, 2009 1:02:20 PM

Post# of 19057
Markets closed at Qs 29.42, SPX 850.12, DOW 8281, and Nasdaq 1531 -- near at resistances as we can see on 60min charts. However, 60min charts bounced up at the TL supports and uptrend-break-targets which are pivotal and important supports with Inv H&S formations. Markets are consolidating in symmetrical formations after reversing at uptrend-break-target at DOW 8000, SPX 817, Nasdaq 1455, and Qs 28.

Daily charts show macd positive divergences after selling in light volumes during 6 trading days and buying with higher volumes during the last two trading days. Weekly charts have shown very weak positive momentums with macd positive.

Market sentiment is very pessimistic ahead of 4Q/08 earning reports as noted during Dec. With the recent pull back selling in light volumes, we had a warning of “embrace for impact” to pivotal supports at Inv H&S formations. Worse cases are regressively breaking the pivotal supports, retesting the 11/21 low, and trading to lower/low supports – e.g. SPX 741 and SPX 700 +/-.


Considering how pessimistic markets were going into inauguration day and intraday 60min bouncing up, Markets will likely provide some optimism inauguration rally on 1/20 - however, a breaking above the symmetrical triangle formations should be a confirmation as we can see bad "Inaugural History" statistics.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34905119

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/01/market.html


On the economic front, the National Association of Home Builders survey is reported Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims and housing starts are released Thursday. Weekly oil inventory data is reported Thursday this week.

Earnings Central

Banks, health care, tech and industrial companies all report in the four day week. J&J reports Tuesday, and Abbott Labs Wednesday. Financial firms State Street and TD Ameritrade report Tuesday, while Bank of New York and Key Corp report Thursday.

Tech giant IBM reports Tuesday; Apple reports Wednesday, and Google and Microsoft release earnings Thursday. United Technologies' reporting date is Wednesday and GE, the parent of CNBC, is on Friday.

Inaugural History

On 14 inauguration days when the Dow was trading, dating back to 1929, the market finished down nine times. The losses though were mostly minor and the average for the Dow on all of those days was negative 0.38. When Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, the Dow had one of its worst inauguration day performances, finishing 2.09 percent lower. When Franklin Delano Roosevelt began his second term in 1937, the Dow rose 1.05 percent, its best inauguration performance.





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