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Tuesday, December 23, 2008 11:00:13 PM
And the fraudulent conveyance and A/L issues will carry the day.
As time passes I am more and more convinced that JPM and FDIC will work to make the looming problem of WMI litigation go away sooner rather than later. There is simply no way JPM and the FDIC can successfully argue that 2,200 branches and $265 billion in deposits (the latter generating an annual spread in excess of $10 billion), even deducting liabilities, could be sold for $1.9 billion.
JPM will have obtained a legal opinion about WMI's fraudulent conveyance claim and been told that the potential exposure as a transferee of WMI's seized assets is very high indeed, as is the FDIC's as well. None of the parties really wants this litigation (what would happen is a fraudulent conveyance action as an adversary proceeding would be filed in the bankruptcy court against the FDIC and JPM, and would probably take about six months to litigate), and Judge Walrath doesn't want to rule on the issues. The judge would prefer the parties reach a compromise, so the litigation is going on behind the scenes, probably through dueling financial analyses.
People on this board want transparency, price increases, and a quick resolution, but what they want isn't relevant. Notwithstanding, the fact that institutions and sophisticated investors are buying and holding all WMI equities is a sign things will work out for retail holders.
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