Simple's Green Room

[Worn_Buffet]

knock knock.....

hey there SG....thot I'd stop by & say hola.....good read there...thx....u dont mind if I post it on the "other" board do ya...of course w/due credit.....good, dint think so...hehe

Indeed the gold play seems to have been busted...& for quite sometime now. It has def made me scratch my head as well. Having said that here's what I'm beg ta believe on the matter.....& I'll start w/my current position which is...at these levels I still consider myself to be both a equity & dollar bear....tho not quote as much as a few weeks ago.

OK....just how much lower do we think the US equities will go? As for me, I've been sticken to my Dow bottom call of 72-7500...& lately I'm beg ta think that this level may be too low...at least I'm hopin so. Now on the greenback side, I'm a lil more confident of a retrace there...especially considering the rally mode its' been in. Tho here too I'm also beg ta think that I'm gonna need to be revisen my mid 50's to low 60's bottom call to the next range north....mid 60's to low 70's. I'm not sure when this present flight to the greenback will end?...for which much of it I feel is foreign capital bailin oudda the Eurozone. However as the greenback continues to rise I think it may be safe ta say that when it finally does begin to retrace...it may not be quite the dramatic fall as I was originally thinken we'd be seein....at least not all the way down to the mid 50's - low 60's.

Now how will gold fare thru all of this? Tuff ? indeed....you can subscribe to the school of thought if the Dow is close to the bottom here, more & more equity dollars will be flooding back into the mrkt & helping to support a new range here in the dow. Now pls don't get me wrong, in no way am I sayin we'll be seein a huge rally in the equities anytime soon...at least not one that's gonna be sustainable. IMO any rallies we may see we'll simply hit a ceiling of selling pressure as folks decide to either take profits or simply re-tool more so into cash. So as for gold, sure, in the long run I do feel these levels are fairly safe, in fact if you can hold for a yr or more I think one could do fairly well w/a gold position down here. However in the shrot term, I'm not so sure that gold will be spiken all too much...or like the dow, sustaining any rallies to the north for all too long.

A real tuff mrkt indeed as many of the fundamentals & trading rules seem to be in the process of being re-written....& all the while the currencies are going thru the mother of all re-handicappings....& as it should be considering current mrkt dynamics & enviornment.

Indeed there's tons of mid to large cap value out there right now...at least for the long haul....it's the short term call that's the huge bugaboo...as always I guess. So what I'm sayin is....not so sure gold is gonna be the short term winner that some think it is? Especially if commodities remain at present levels.....& I should add....it's a damn good thing they've retraced...especially oil...can u imagine where the US economy would be if the commodities stayed where they were thru all of this....OUCH!!!

At any rate....it'll be interesting to see what helicopter boy does this coming week....imo if he had any kahoonas at all he'd be keepin rates right where they are or even dare I say raise'em a 1/4 :0 I'm guessin tho that he'll bow to all the pressure & lower'em to make everyone happy....which may give gold a lil short term pop perhaps....but who really knows?, surely not I....this sure aint your Daddy's mrkt (well, maybe your Grandaddy's...lol) any'mo. ;)~

Thx again for the read....good stuff....& pay us another visit when ya got the time over at the other place y dontcha.

OK, just about time for Kick Off...

Cheers!!




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