Nsomniak challenge:
Well, I thought my odds would be best with heavy sector concentration, and picked four oil and gas stocks (BZP, CNEH, FTK, ATPG), along with a solar pick (CSIQ) which tends to run in parallel with them, along with a China steel company (SUTR).
BZP- This turned out to be a unique pick and is currently a wild card, although earnings are expected this quarter. Although the symbol is BZP, the company name is BPZ Resources. I originally heard of this a couple of years ago while scanning "Big Dog's Boom Boom Room" on the Silicon Investor site, where it was popular at the time. They're an oil and gas exploration company based out of Houston. The company has the rights to large reserves in Peru and Ecuador, and has been largely priced based on them. They also have an development agreement with Shell Oil signed early in the year. I think the Raymond James firm has a $50 target on it (the stock has been in the low teens after a run to 30). Earnings have been negative, but expected at .27 for the current quarter, .38 for the 4th Q and 2.11 for next year. Basically, I've followed the stock trading, and know it does well when the sector is performing. I sensed the stock had good tone during the days preceding the contest.
CNEH- I guess most of us are familiar with this by now. It's a low PE China oil stock growing rapidly. Earnings last quarter were 0.19. They made some nice comments on production levels for the rest of the year recently. This seemed to have fixed the stock, at least for the time being.
FTK- This was my best performing stock in real life of all time, and I'm partial to it. They are a technologically oriented oil service company. Their specialty chemicals division, continues to grow rapidly, and overall earnings growth are expected at 50%+ for '09. The company went from obscurity to the #1 stock on IBD's Top 100 last year, and has given up most of two year's gains. Their is still some negativity associated with an acquistion, but that has served to lower the price. If the sector moves this one should.
ATPG- Another oil and gas exploration company that most here have been familiar with. I have personally owned it often, fortunately holding larger positions on major positive moves. Like most energy companies, it has been hard recently. Although there have been production issues at times, it's a solid company that should rebound well if the environment is positive.
CSIQ- A Chinese solar company that has shown excellent earnings with strong projections. The sector largely follows energy prices, and can be very dynamic when the momentum is right.
SUTR- A Chinese steel company popular with our group. This was largely a case of watching the strength of recent trading, along with the price being depressed and earnings strong.
