Tuesday, July 15, 2008 9:34:30 AM
Speaking of 'buy around $6' ....
.... the graphic below shows just how well that has worked out over the last year.
Assuming that one might not be able to get a good chunk of shares right at $6 , I've put in a baseline at $6.12. That looks like it would have made it fairly easy to get shares , and in at least one case a little quick averaging down would have been in order. (On T. Cunningham's January dump.)
When trading it's usually a good idea to predetermine an exit point and stick to it unless underlying factors change or significant technical breakouts occur. This graphic illustrates two such possibilities ... waiting for a predetermined +15% profit on the trade , and waiting for a predetermined +30% profit on the trade. Of course there are points in between and depending on momentum one can always try to squeeze the most out of any particular trade , i.e. , knowing the past history re: Russell would have made settling for +15% in that time-frame less than prudent.
As the graphic shows , one could easily have traded from $6.12 to $7.04 (+15% gain) 5 times in the last year , or from $6.12 to $7.96 (+30% gain) 3 times in the last year.
LOL , is 'greed good'? 15% or 30%?
Looking at the five +15% trades , assuming a starting purchase of 5000 shares , and assuming reinvesting the entire amount realized at the sell points , we see the following growth:
5000 x $6.12 = $30,600 initial investment
5000 shares sold at $7.04 = $35,200
Reinvested at $6.12 = 5750 shares , sold at $7.04 = $40,480
Reinvested at $6.12 = 6614 shares , sold at $7.04 = $46,563
Reinvested at $6.12 = 7608 shares , sold at $7.04 = $53,560
Reinvested at $6.12 = 8752 shares , sold at $7.04 = $61,612
That's a $26,412 profit for a 75% gain in less than a year.
Looking at the three +30% trades , assuming a starting purchase of 5000 shares , and assuming reinvesting the entire amount realized at the sell points , we see the following growth:
5000 x $6.12 = $30,600 initial investment
5000 shares sold at $7.96 = $39,800
Reinvested at $6.12 = 6503 shares , sold at $7.96 = $51,764
Reinvested at $6.12 = 8458 shares , sold at $7.96 = $67,326
That's a $36,726 profit for a 120% gain in less than a year .... compared to the $26,412 profit and 75% gain on the 5 +15% trades.
Just playin' with numbers and FWIW. And of course this works best on a good swing-trade stock , and TIV has certainly proven to be that for quite a while.
jonesie
.... the graphic below shows just how well that has worked out over the last year.
Assuming that one might not be able to get a good chunk of shares right at $6 , I've put in a baseline at $6.12. That looks like it would have made it fairly easy to get shares , and in at least one case a little quick averaging down would have been in order. (On T. Cunningham's January dump.)
When trading it's usually a good idea to predetermine an exit point and stick to it unless underlying factors change or significant technical breakouts occur. This graphic illustrates two such possibilities ... waiting for a predetermined +15% profit on the trade , and waiting for a predetermined +30% profit on the trade. Of course there are points in between and depending on momentum one can always try to squeeze the most out of any particular trade , i.e. , knowing the past history re: Russell would have made settling for +15% in that time-frame less than prudent.
As the graphic shows , one could easily have traded from $6.12 to $7.04 (+15% gain) 5 times in the last year , or from $6.12 to $7.96 (+30% gain) 3 times in the last year.
LOL , is 'greed good'? 15% or 30%?
Looking at the five +15% trades , assuming a starting purchase of 5000 shares , and assuming reinvesting the entire amount realized at the sell points , we see the following growth:
5000 x $6.12 = $30,600 initial investment
5000 shares sold at $7.04 = $35,200
Reinvested at $6.12 = 5750 shares , sold at $7.04 = $40,480
Reinvested at $6.12 = 6614 shares , sold at $7.04 = $46,563
Reinvested at $6.12 = 7608 shares , sold at $7.04 = $53,560
Reinvested at $6.12 = 8752 shares , sold at $7.04 = $61,612
That's a $26,412 profit for a 75% gain in less than a year.
Looking at the three +30% trades , assuming a starting purchase of 5000 shares , and assuming reinvesting the entire amount realized at the sell points , we see the following growth:
5000 x $6.12 = $30,600 initial investment
5000 shares sold at $7.96 = $39,800
Reinvested at $6.12 = 6503 shares , sold at $7.96 = $51,764
Reinvested at $6.12 = 8458 shares , sold at $7.96 = $67,326
That's a $36,726 profit for a 120% gain in less than a year .... compared to the $26,412 profit and 75% gain on the 5 +15% trades.
Just playin' with numbers and FWIW. And of course this works best on a good swing-trade stock , and TIV has certainly proven to be that for quite a while.
jonesie
Yorkville / Cornell Tracking Board #board-9964
"I can think of no more valuable commodity than information"
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