Insmed Inc (INSM)

[read_this_n0w]

TRCA buyout assesment INCLUDES MMD (!)
(thx msft901)

Fictional name for Tercica was Thunderbird
Fictional name for Ipsen was Dolphin
Fictional name for Insmed xyz (insmed named as optin for MMD)

Summary of Thunderbirds KEY Products
Increlex - Peak US Sales: $225 million ( 2018)
Somatuline - Peak US Sales $415 million (2019)
Combo - Peak US sales $700 million - 2019
MMD - Peak Sales $625 million (2022)

MMD sales are projected significantly higher than increlex (about three fold)

MMD thunderbird notes:
-MMD chances approval are way too conservative in lehman report at 25%, considering how phase I, IIb data came out and from online testimonials. (also considering that iplex is not a cure as such, but rather counters the effects of the illness)
-MMD sales projections should 750 million (low end of the 800mln-1.3billion report earlier this year)
-MMD optin early 2009 (~15 million), low end, more likely ~30mln

Even considering all those low end estimates, net present value NPV for MMD indication $ 65 million ( 15% discount)


Pdf links:

http://www.xs4all.nl/~surg3on/INSM/200807Lehman_part1_0001193125081467.pdf

http://www.xs4all.nl/~surg3on/INSM/200807Lehman_part2_0001193125081467.pdf

http://www.xs4all.nl/~surg3on/INSM/200807Lehman_part3_0001193125081467.pdf

Corresponding SEC links:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262175/000119312508146786/dex99c3.htm
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262175/000119312508146786/dex99c4.htm
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262175/000119312508146786/dex99c2.htm


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INSM (the company with the MMD indication rights)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1433