Handset Sales Breakout by Technology ...
... and Technology Mix Breakout by OEM Vendor
<< Thanks Eric, always apperciate your stats. >>
Hi Jim,
Some of the regular board constituents will probably find the abstracted data in this post above average interesting. I did.
Given recent share shifts, with Moto scrambling and looking for direction, with Sony Ericsson hobbled for at least the upcoming few quarters, and Samsung gaining 3G share, it certainly reinforces the necessity of InterDigital getting a deal done with both Nokia and with Samsung, and validates the fact that they management has their priorities straight.
With a single noted exception in Table I below, the basis for all the tables in this post was derived from data supplied by Tim Luke, Andrew M. Gardiner (CFA), Jeff Kvaal (with (Stuart Jeffrey, Inder Singh), and Olubunmi Asaolu (CFA) from the semiconductor and comms equipment and wireless teams of Lehman Brothers (LB) in a 36 page "Global Wireless Semi Update" published April 29, 2008, with handset related inputs to the report provided by Gartner Research.
What is unique about the report is that LB and Gartner have "attempted" to breakout handset sales and market share by access technology for 2006/2007 with forecasted estimates for 2008/2009, for each of the top OEM branded vendors. In addition they provided division by the three technology tiers within the 3GPP GSM/3GSM ecosystem -- WCDMA, EDGE and GSM or GSM/GPRS.
Unfortunately 3GPP2 CDMA is not broken down by CDMA2000 1xRTT and 3G high end 1xEV-DO access technologies in the same fashion. OTOH, in InterDigital's world, if not ROW outside of QUALCOMM, both 1xRTT and 1xEV-DO are considered to be 3G technologies.
The authors note that the 3GPP GSM/3GSM division is not straightforward since WCDMA phones are often EDGE compatible, EDGE phones are GSM/GPRS compatible, etc. and the OEMs do not generally provide unit breakouts by technology. They estimate WCDMA (w/or w/o the HSPA extension) handsets to be "the fastest growing technology, moving to nearly 30% of total handset shipments in 2009, and displacing both GSM/GPRS, EDGE and CDMA devices as 3G devices continue to gain traction globally."
One possible discrepancy that should be noted is that apparently CDMA data includes mobile handsets, + WiLL, + data cards + modules in recent years (i.e. QUALCOMM's numbers), while other technologies appear to be handsets only. If that is the case CDMA sales and share may be slightly inflated (and other technology's share slightly skewed downwards) since fixed wireless handsets (WiLL, often hard to differentiate from mobile wireless handsets) and data cards are increasingly part of the CDMA mix. Data cards are also increasingly part of the WCDMA mix (albeit a lower percent of increasingly larger total), but I don't think either Gartner or LB track them in handset mix.
One shortcoming of the data is that Tier 1 player, LG's numbers are not broken out separately from the 2nd and 3rd Tier Japanese, Chinese, Taiwanese (branded HTC), Korean (Pantech), and American (RIM, Apple) 'Others.'
That said, and while it is possible to nitpicksome of the detail in the data provided, overall I consider it to be the best, most current, and most credible data of this type that I have seen published to date. It contains a wealth of data, and to my eye it looks reasonably accurate. I'm hopeful some readers of this board find it useful.
The long and short of this is that LB/Gartner are forecasting that 3G unit sales (WCDMA + CDMA 2000 in InterDigital's vocabulary) will constitute 39% (502 million units) of the 1.28 billion mobile device units they expect to be shipped this year and 45% of what they anticipate shipping next year. Of that 2008 total, they anticipate #1 Nokia will ship 25% (123 million -- 39% of WCDMA and 7% of CDMA2000), and #2 Samsung will ship 19% (100 million -- 18% of WCDMA and 24% of CDMA2000). Collectively that's 44% of what InterDigital sees as 3G sales but doesn't currently have under royalty bearing license.
I. Historical Handset Unit Sales and Share by Access Technology¹
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== =====
GSM/GPRS/EDGE 248m 240m 278m 332m 457m 580m 699m 766m
61% 62% 65% 64% 67% 72% 71% 66%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
W-CDMA (+HSPA) 0m 0m 0m 3m 20m 50m 103m 174m
% of Total 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 6% 10% 15%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CDMA/CDMA 1X/EV-DO 65m 70m 84m 114m 151m 163m 189m 209m
% of Total 16% 18% 20% 22% 22% 20% 19% 18%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other 94m 76m 69m 71m 52m 19m 5m 1m
% of Total 22% 20% 16% 14% 8% 2% 1% 0%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Handsets 407m 386m 431m 520m 680m 812m 991m 1,140m
YoY Growth +50% -5% +11% +21% +31% +19% +22% +15%
===========================================================================
¹ Lehman Brothers Semiconductor Handbook 2007 (July 13, 2008)
II. Mobile Wireless Handset Sales Mix by Access Technologies
A. Unit Sales Mix by Individual Access Technology
Access Technology Mix 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
WCDMA High End 103m 10% 174m 15% 279m 22% 399m 29%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 171m 17% 234m 21% 253m 20% 261m 19%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 528m 53% 523m 46% 524m 41% 502m 36%
Total CDMA¹ 189m 19% 209m 18% 223m 17% 236m 17%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
===========================================================================
¹ Apparently CDMA includes mobile handsets, + WiLL, + data cards + modules
B. Unit Sales Mix by Ecosystem: 3GPP v. 3GPP2 Technologies
Mix By Ecosystem 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Combined GSM/3GSM WCDMA 802m 81% 922m 82% 1056m 83% 1162m 83%
Total CDMA 189m 19% 209m 18% 223m 17% 236m 17%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
===========================================================================
C. GSM Based v. 'cdma' Based [CDMA2000 + WCDMA] Unit Sales Mix
GSM v. 'cdma' Mix 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Combined GSM Based 699m 71% 766m 66% 777m 61% 763m 55%
Combined 'cdma' Based 292m 29% 383m 34% 502m 39% 635m 45%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
===========================================================================
III. Handset Market Leaders Sales and Share by Access Technolgy
Note: Share by vendor, and for the technology (top row) in the tables below is total global share.
A. WCDMA & WCDMA/HSPA 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total WCDMA Handsets 103m 10% 174m 15% 279m 22% 399m 29%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Nokia 35m 34% 66m 38% 108m 39% 159m 40%
Samsung 11m 10% 27m 16% 50m 18% 75m 19%
Motorola 22m 21% 13m 7% 14m 5% 21m 5%
Sony Ericsson 13m 12% 35m 20% 45m 16% 67m 17%
LG, Other Asians, Others 23m 23% 33m 19% 63m 22% 77m 19%
===========================================================================
·
B. CDMA2000 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total CDMA2000 Handsets 189m 19% 209m 18% 223m 17% 236m 17%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Nokia 17m 9% 13m 6% 15m 7% 17m 7%
Sony Ericsson 1m 0% 1m 0% 1m 0% 0m 0%
Total CDMA Full Range 30m 16% 24m 11% 17m 8% 24m 10%
Samsung 33m 28% 45m 28% 50m 24% 59m 25%
LG, Other Asians, Others 107m 57% 125m 60% 139m 62% 136m 58%
===========================================================================
·
C. GSM/GPRS/EDGE 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
Units Share Units Share Units Share Units Share
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total GSM/GPRS/EDGE 699m 71% 766m 66% 777m 61% 763m 55%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Nokia 296m 42% 359m 47% 390m 50% 392m 51%
Sony Ericsson 62m 11% 67m 9% 52m 7% 47m 6%
Motorola 165m 24% 123m 16% 81m 10% 88m 12%
Samsung 75m 11% 88m 11% 109m 14% 101m 13%
LG, Other Asians, Others 103m 15% 119m 16% 146m 19% 135m 18%
===========================================================================
IV. Expanded Handset Breakout by Technology by OEM Branded Vendor
Note: In the top units and share technology section of these tables below, percentage share is the percentage of each vendors own shipments for the described technology. In the bottom technology section, share is the vendor's global share of that technology.
A. Nokia 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Nokia Handsets 348m 100% 438m 100% 512m 100% 568m 100%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
WCDMA High End 35m 10% 66m 15% 108m 21% 159m 28%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 70m 20% 92m 21% 108m 21% 119m 21%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 226m 65% 267m 61% 282m 55% 273m 48%
Total CDMA Full Range 17m 5% 13m 3% 15m 3% 17m 3%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Global Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
Nokia Global Share 348m 35% 438m 38% 512m 40% 568m 41%
===========================================================================
Nokia Global Market Share by Technology
===========================================================================
WCDMA High End 35m 34% 66m 38% 108m 39% 159m 40%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 70m 41% 92m 39% 108m 43% 119m 46%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 226m 43% 267m 51% 282m 54% 273m 54%
Total CDMA Full Range 17m 9% 13m 6% 15m 7% 17m 7%
===========================================================================
·
B. Samsung 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Samsung Handsets 118m 100% 161m 100% 210m 100% 235m 100%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
WCDMA High End 11m 9% 27m 17% 50m 24% 75m 32%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 24m 20% 40m 25% 48m 23% 49m 21%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 51m 43% 48m 30% 61m 29% 52m 22%
Total CDMA Full Range 33m 28% 45m 28% 50m 24% 59m 25%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Global Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
Samsung Global Share 118m 12% 161m 14% 210m 16% 235m 17%
===========================================================================
Samsung Global Market Share by Technology
===========================================================================
WCDMA High End 11m 10% 27m 16% 50m 18% 75m 19%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 24m 14% 40m 17% 48m 19% 49m 19%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 51m 10% 48m 9% 61m 12% 52m 10%
Total CDMA Full Range 33m 18% 45m 22% 50m 23% 59m 25%
===========================================================================
·
C. Motorola 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Motorola Handsets 217m 100% 160m 100% 113m 100% 133m 100%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
WCDMA High End 22m 21% 13m 7% 14m 5% 21m 5%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 30m 14% 46m 29% 29m 26% 33m 25%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 135m 62% 77m 48% 52m 46% 55m 41%
Total CDMA Full Range 30m 14% 24m 15% 17m 15% 24m 18%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Global Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
Motorola Global Share 118m 22% 161m 14% 210m 16% 235m 17%
===========================================================================
Motorola Global Market Share by Technology
===========================================================================
WCDMA High End 22m 21% 13m 7% 14m 5% 21m 5%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 30m 18% 46m 20% 29m 12% 33m 13%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 135m 25% 77m 15% 52m 10% 55m 11%
Total CDMA Full Range 30m 16% 24m 11% 17m 8% 24m 10%
===========================================================================
·
D. Sony Ericsson 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total SEricsson Handsets 75m 100% 103m 100% 97m 100% 113m 100%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
WCDMA High End 13m 17% 35m 34% 45m 46% 67m 59%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 15m 20% 20m 19% 16m 16% 14m 12%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 47m 62% 47m 46% 36m 37% 33m 29%
Total CDMA Full Range 1m 5% 1m 3% 1m 3% 0m 3%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Global Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
SEricsson Global Share 75m 8% 103m 9% 97m 8% 113m 8%
===========================================================================
Sony Ericsson Global Market Share by Technology
===========================================================================
WCDMA High End 13m 12% 35m 20% 45m 16% 67m 17%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 15m 9% 20m 8% 16m 6% 14m 5%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 47m 9% 47m 9% 36m 7% 33m 7%
Total CDMA Full Range 1m 0% 1m 0% 1m 0% 0m 0%
===========================================================================
·
E. LG and 'Others' 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
=========== =========== =========== ===========
2006 % of 2007 % of 2008E % of 2009E % of
Units Total Units Total Units Total Units Total
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total LG/Others Handsets 233m 100% 278m 100% 348m 100% 348m 100%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
WCDMA High End 23m 10% 33m 12% 63m 18% 77m 22%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 33m 14% 36m 13% 52m 15% 45m 13%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 70m 30% 83m 30% 94m 27% 90m 26%
Total CDMA 107m 46% 125m 45% 139m 40% 136m 39%
======================== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Total Global Handsets 991m 100% 1140m 100% 1280m 100% 1398m 100%
LG/Others Global Share 233m 24% 278m 24% 348m 27% 348m 25%
===========================================================================
LG, Other Asians, and Others, Global Market Share by Technology
===========================================================================
WCDMA High End 23m 23% 33m 19% 63m 22% 77m 19%
GSM EDGE Mid-Tier 33m 19% 36m 15% 52m 21% 45m 17%
GSM or GSM/GPRS Low End 70m 13% 83m 16% 94m 18% 90m 18%
Total CDMA Full Range 107m 57% 125m 60% 139m 62% 136m 58%
===========================================================================
Caveat: As always it is possible and perhaps probable that in creating the table templates I chose to employ for this exercise, and in extracting data and compiling the tables above, that I have made typos, transposition errors, or calculation errors. If anyone spots one I'd appreciate being so advised.
- Eric -
