Trading with Jerry Olson

[Jerry Olson]

Since we all have opinions about the coming weeks ahead, i thought i'd post my real time weekly newsletter for anyone that wishes to read it. I'm not trolling for subs, just sharing my ideas of what "could" happen if this or that ocurrs.

good luck to us all this week...we'll all need it...
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED AUGUST 5TH 2007
THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY

Hello out there all my cyber trading friends from around the globe on these hot summer days of olden times. I hope this letter finds you and yours in the best of health and spirits.

There is a myriad of "potential" events that are about to appear on the charts this week. We are literally teetering on the brink of a major crash, while heading into "the" most important FOMC meeting in the last 2-3 years. Will they come to the markets rescue? Nope! Will they mention the intense weakening of the housing markets total collapse? Yes! Are they going to put into their statement a word or two about the financial sup prime mess that is scaring the whole investing community? Yes! Will they cut rates at this meeting? NO! My thinking is they are going to move off the inflation mantra of the last 3 years or more fighting this invisible foe, and move toward the potential problems of growth. I can say the FED thinks based on last quarters 3% GDP that the economy is fine. I think so too despite high crude prices and the falling dollar. But actually if we all take a step back here for a moment, and ask yourselves this question, is everything ok with you? I suspect the answer is a resounding yes. This sub prime mess and the fallout of the hedge funds that invested heavily in those mortgages are going down the tubes. But that's their problem certainly not ours or the FEDS. If you think about this part of the financial sector it's actually pretty miniscule if you ask me. But we all know this will be a great time for all the banks and brokers to write down all these bad loans etc, and that the next 2-3 quarters will be negative compared to the good old days of throwing darts at the investing public.

The people that purchased these below market loans have only themselves to blame for their digressions. There was a host of choices out there over the last 3-5 years for solid sensible mortgages that could have been just ducky right now. But we all know the "greed" factor of us Americans and other ethnic groups too. Heck if you can refi a house at interest only, grab some cash out, and buying yet a another house, hey this is the American Dream right? Well you placed your bets, you took your shot, now do what you need to do to make necessary repairs. The money tree just got whacked by a Tornado with the leaves getting blown away. That's only what truly is supposed to happen anyway folks. Like the stock market going up forever without a correction, yeah right! But, and i do mean butt! On the other hand(otoh), we are flying lower each day toward a major buying opportunity as soon as the short term bullish percents reverse back up and the downward momentum stops moving lower on the main indicators we'll be in hog heaven all over again.. While this looks U-G-L-Y, there is beauty in the eye of the beholder. I say the uglier the better, the more fear, the more crash and burn right here will set this market up for a major rally. Either it starts post FED this week or shortly thereafter.

Some times when the FED makes a subtle change to their statement it takes a few days to be absorbed into the system on the street. Once they feel the FED is willing to cut rates down the road, once they see the FED pouring liquidity into the monetary markets to help buoy the financials, then it's time to buy. On Point & Figure there are many bp's in the "Green Zone" as we speak. In fact many of the main coaches are approaching solid support areas too. We could get a massive short covering rally here not seen in this decade. I am not kidding either. You have seen 200+ down days in the markets but have you seen a 3-400 up day? There's one coming bet your (mortgaged) house on it. It's simply just as I've written here over the last 6 years or so. Everything is moving by inertia once it gets rolling in one direction or the other we always seem to surpass even the most extreme prices on the indexes. The markets are a herd mentality as we all know. Well the herd is negative right now, that too will change in a blink of an eye. The question is a simple one, will you all be ready? I suggest making up a shopping list of beaten down names and ETF's. The housing & financial sectors are heading to major lows soon. Buying in this area might be the best plays of all. We have an important next 2-3 days folks, let's watch the action. Please preserve capital cash, we are in wealth preservation mode right now. That will change very soon be ready!
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the password for this week is------------------- benbfomc ------------------ one word lower case letters
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DJIA---A SIMPLE CHART IF WE BREAK 13,100 WE IMMEDIATELY GO TO 12,900 AND THEN POSSIBLY TO THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND AT 12,650 MY ULTIMATE DOWNSIDE TARGET. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ1.gif ANY REVERSAL BACK UP OFF THE CURRENT PRICE STRUCTURE WOULD BE A GOOD SIGN. 13,350-400 IS THAT REVERSAL PRICE.

NASD-COMPX---WE'VE HIT MY SHORT TRIGGER AT 2520 LAST WEEK THAT'S A NEGATIVE IF WE PRINT 2510, WE COULD GET A FLUSH OF 100 POINTS TOWARD 2420 FOLKS. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ2.gif WE NEED 2550-60 RIGHT NOW.

NDX 100 INDEX---1910 COULD SLASH THIS SOLID INDEX RIGHT THRU THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) DOWN TO 1880ISH AREA. IT'S HELD QUITE WELL RIGHT NOW. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ3.gif 1950-60 IS NEEDED ASAP

RUT 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX---REALLY TOOK A BIG HIT LAST WEEK AS THE MONEY IS FLOWING TOWARD BIG CAP NAMES. BUT THIS INDEX IS VERY OVERSOLD HERE AND MIGHT GET A BOUNCE SOON http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ4.gif PLEASE LOOK AT THIS CANDLE CHART http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ5.gif

SOX INDEX THE SEMICONDUCTORS---INTERESTING CHART HERE FOLKS. WE ARE SITTING RIGHT ON THE BSL LINE AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THE BP IS IN O'S AND FALLING. IT BETTER STOP THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM NOW OR WE COULD SEE A MAJOR CRASH IN THE SEMIS SECTOR. http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ6.gif

CL CONTINUOUS CRUDE CHART---IF CRUDE CAN BREAK BELOW 74.50 IT COULD SEE 70.50 OVER TIME http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ7.gif

GC CONTINUOUS GOLD CHART---IT LOOKS EXPLOSIVE TO ME EVERYONE BUT IT IS NEARING HARD RESISTANCE RIGHT NOW... http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ8.gif

SPX 500 INDEX---THIS IS MY PROXY FOR THE WHOLE MARKET. IT WAS DOWN HUGE FRIDAY ALMOST 40 POINTS. BUT AGAIN CHECK OUT THE CCI HERE OFF THIS MASSIVE RANGE EXPANSION DOWN RED BAR ON THE DAILY. PRICE LOWS BUT CCI MOMENTUM HIGHER LOWS...INTERESTING HUH? http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ9.gif

ES U7 THE S& P FUTURES----AS OF THIS NEWSLETTER AT 7.20 EST THE FUTES ARE BELOW MY 1440 APRIL LOW AND COLD RUSH TOWARD 1400 VERY FAST IN THE AM. BUT THAT FLUSH COULD BE JUST WHAT THIS MARKET NEEDS ONE MORE SPIKE LOW..

NQ U7 THE NAS FUTURES---A BREAK OF 1920 WILL MOVE IT IMMEDIATELY DOWN TO 1900 SOLID SUPPORT IF THAT DOES NOT HOLD THE DOWNSIDE TARGET IS OVER 100 POINTS BELOW AT THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND.

NOW LOOK EVERYONE. THIS IS NO TIME TO BE BRAVE AND FIGHT THIS ACTION. EVEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER CHOP DAY WE WON A FEW AND LOST A FEW. BUT IN ALL REALITY THIS IS NOT FOR THE FEINT OF HEART. IN FACT IT'S DOWNRIGHT NUTS TO TRY TO "GUESS" THE MARKETS BEHAVIOR RIGHT NOW. LET IT SHOW US THE MONEY NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND.

WE MIGHT GET A LARGE EARLY SELL OFF THEN A BUYING FRENZY COULD ENSUE AHEAD OF THE TUES FOMC MEETING THINKING THEY WILL SAVE THE DAY. THAT IN IT SELF COULD BE DISASTROUS. WE WILL NOT KNOW THE 'REACTION" TO THAT FED DECISION UNTIL IT UNFOLDS TUES AFTERNOON. IT IS MY CONTENTION THAT WE ALL JUST SIT BACK AND NOT OVERTRADE. IF THERE'S A QUICK SET UP CALL IT OUT AND I WILL TOO. BUT TO JUST MAKE A TRADE FOR THE SAKE OF THE ACTION IS PURE GAMBLING. NOT MY STYLE NOT MY TRADEMARK.
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THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IN THE ROOM IS--------------- benbfomc ------------------- that's one word lower case letters
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QID---46.85 THE BTL---46.20 THE SST---THIS ETF HAS TAKEN OUT THE 50 DAY ON THE DAILY WATCH FOR A BURST TO 51-52

DXD---52.55 THE BTL---51.90 THE SST---THIS IS THE PRO SHARES FOR THE DJIA IF WE GET HIT HARD TAKE THIS LONG

SNDK---53.80 THE BTL---53.05 THE SST---ACTUALLY HANGING VERY TOUGH THRU THIS PULL BACK COULD REALLY BOUNCE

SMH---37.35 THE BTL---36.80 THE SST---IF THE SEMIS GET TAGGED TOMORROW THIS COULD TOUCH THE 200 EMA AT 36.00 I WOULD BUY IT THERE IF WE REVERSE BACK UP SINCE THE SOX INDEX IS HOLDING AT THE BSL...

CROX---58.90 THE BTL---58.30 THE SST---SEEMS READY FOR A FAST CORRECTION EARLY ON BUT WATCH FOR BUYERS ON THE DIP TOWARD THE 20 EMA.

SOHU---33.70 THE BTL---33.00 THE SST---IN ALL THIS MESS THIS STOCK IS HOLDING LIKE A ROCK MAJOR UPSIDE IMO

CSCO---29.70 THE BTL---29.20 THE SST---HAS EARNINGS TUES EVENING AFTER THE FED ANNOUNCEMENT CAN IT PLAY SUPERMAN & SAVE THE DAY? THE ANSWER IS YES!

VSDI---29.05 THE BTL---28.50 THE SST---WHAT A MONSTER DAY FRIDAY EVEN WITH THE NAZ DOWN 64.00 HOLY TOLEDO?

OMTR---24.45 THE BTL---23.90 THE SST---ANOTHER DITTO HERE FOLKS HELD LIKE A ROCK FRIDAY IN ALL THAT CARNAGE

CRNT---15.40 THE BTL---14.80 THE SST---THIS IBD STOCK IS HOLDING LIKE UNREAL HERE, UP ON A VERY BAD DOWN DAY

ALL AND ALL THERE ARE POCKETS OF STRENGTH HERE IN SELECTED NAMES KEEP THEM ON YOUR QUOTE SHEETS AND WATCH FOR A GAP DOWN BOUNCE PLAY. WE ARE LOOKING FOR BULLISH DIVERGENCES ON THE CCI'S
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SO WE CHPPED AROUND ALL WEEK LAST WEEK WINNING SOME AND LOSING SOME DURING THE WILD SWINGS INTRADAY. I WROTE TO YOU ALL THAT THIS EXPECTED BOUNCE MONDAY TUES COULD HAVE BEEN JUST A 2 STICK BEAR FLAG. THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT IT WAS. THERE WAS NO MORNING STAR FOLKS. SO EVERYONE STAY VERY LOOSE HERE MAKE NO MISTAKES AND LET'S SEE IF WE CAN CATCH THE RALLY WHEN IT STARTS.

BEST OF LUCK

JERRY & INNA




Jerry Olson
The Jog Group LLC
[e-mail]