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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 11, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024.

WTI Crude Oil: Currently net long 214k, down 45.7k.



West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2 percent to $78.26/barrel this week, but oil bulls were on the defensive. The crude has been under pressure since tagging $87.67 on April 12th, having rallied from $67.71 last December.

This week, WTI dropped as low as $76.89 on Wednesday before bids showed up, but that was not enough to push it past the 200-day at $80.05, with the crude under the average for eight sessions now. The 50-day is above at $81.78.

Last week, the crude fell back into a well-established range between $71-$72 and $81-$82 that persisted for 19 months before the upper end gave way six weeks ago. This Friday, it rallied as high as $79.96 before sellers showed up.

If there is any consolation for the bulls, it is that Wednesday’s low successfully tested a rising trendline from last December’s low, for a weekly doji. That said, odds favor a breach ahead.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to May 3rd was unchanged for nine consecutive weeks at 13.1 million barrels per day; 11 weeks ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports increased 197,000 b/d to seven mb/d. As did gasoline and distillate inventory, which respectively rose 915,000 barrels and 560,000 barrels to 228 million barrels and 116.4 million barrels. Crude stocks, however, dropped 1.4 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose one percentage point to 88.5 percent.

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