Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

CDMO Liquidity Enchilada :)

This is an attempt to a more detailed view on the remaining CDMO liquidity that can be used for daily trading based on 60,828,589 outstanding shares.

60,828,589 - 56,572,206 = 4,256,383 shares left after Inst. Inv.

4,256,383 - 300,000 = 3,956,383 after Insiders (source)

3,956,383 - 1,000,000 = 2,956,383 After us, long-long retailers (estimation, probably low as I personally know the whereabouts of approx. 500K shares post reverse split)

2,956,383 - 750,000 = 2,206,383 after Russell 3000 (explanation see below)

CONCLUSION

The educated result yields about 2,206,383 remaining shares in the hands of market participants that may day or swing trade or otherwise participate to the market in a way that their shares are not really blocked. This number must certainly be increased by some profit taking of II's, retailers, etc, although the buy/sell tables show that IIs are certainly not selling a lot for the moment.

It is hard to say what the error margin is on the above result. Without any doubt there will be new pending-to-be-listed sell and buy orders of IIs and the Russell 3000 amount will probably be of several 100K shares.

All extra liquidity will have to be artificial such as intraday shorting based on borrowing or overnight shorting based on lending plans. However, we shouldn't count to much on that because the educated shorter will probably be aware of position-close problems in situations of low-liquidity and high demand. So we depend a little on the cowboy shorters that do not know.

I ignored options and option constructions as I have no idea how to begin with that related to this liquidity analysis.

The above result does show that a forward split could come in handy as it usually results in profit taking and position re-adjustments that free up shares. Yet, it is only a temporary solution, because if done right with continuous good news, a lower PPS after the split will only result in higher demand. AIMO.


RUSSELL

From the sources below it shows that we are in the Russell 2000, 3000 and Microcap and that the reconstitution (preliminary and final) where communicated to the markets and effective as of 25th June market close.

As you can see here, 1,416,782 shares where in the Russell 2000 and 574,379 in the Russell Microcap. They are already part of the above II/Mutual Fund calculations. So it is waiting for the Russel 3000 amount that will probably surface in the very near future and will then become part of the II%, while yet the shares are out of our liquidity but not listed yet. I estimated their amount between the Russell 2000 and Microcap amount.

Reconstitution

The newly reconstituted indexes took effect after the market close on June 25.

Equity Lists for the Russell Indexes (Alphabetic) that show Avid Bioservices (CDMO):

Russell 2000

Russell 3000

Russell Microcap Index

Enjoy