Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[LongTkt]

I'm a big picture thinker & ran some numbers.

Let's ignore HIV, Alzheimer's, Cancer, etc. for now.

The COVID vaccine won't be ready for mass distribution until June 2021. It will be similar to the flu vaccine so 50% of the population choose to get the vaccine and the vaccine is 50% effective for those that receive it. That means only 25% of the world will be successfully vaccinated from COVID by October 2021.

The tea leaves indicate that the trial is going to be an overwhelming clinical trial results.
1) Great Leronlimab eInd results for patients unresponsive after 30 days of remdesivir
2) Can differentiate between Control & Leronlimab in trial lab results
3) Clinical trial administrator received Leronlimab after getting COVID
4) Unblinding both clinical trials early
5) Bruce and Nader bubbling over with excitement on recent video updates
6) Positive patient testimonials leaking out on social media

Let's assume Leronlimab gets fast FDA approval to give President Trump some positive election fodder. Grant money will be thrown at CYDY to scale up manufacturing globally assuming overwhelming clinical trial results.




I think less than $100/share is horribly undervaluing CYDY for the COVID revenue potential.

Bear with me - I'm converting a spreadsheet to old school text in case the image links break.

Global Adult Population
(15 and older) = 5.6B
Source: World Bank

Wealth Bracket
< $10k/year = 70% = 3.9B adults
$10k to $100k = 21% = 1.2B adults
$100k to $1M = 8% = 445M adults
>$1M = 0.7% = 39.4M adults
Source: Wikipedia

Percent of Adults who can Afford COVID Treatment
< $10K/year = 30%
$10k to $100k = 70%
$100k to $1M = 100%
>$1M = 100%

Percent of Adults Seeking COVID Treatment
< $10K/year = 20%
$10k to $100k = 40%
$100k to $1M = 60%
>$1M = 80%

Global Adult Population Getting COVID Treatment
< $10K/year = 6% (236M adults @ $200/adult) Thanks Bill Gates!
$10k to $100k = 28% (336M adults @ $2,000/adult)
$100k to $1M = 60% (267M adults @ $2,000/adult)
>$1M = 80% (32M adults @ $2,000/adult)

Global COVID Treatment (Gross) Revenue
<10K/year = $47B
>10K/year = $1.269T
Total = $1.316T

$1.3 trillion global COVID treatment market (gross revenue).
Assume 600M outstanding shares (shout out to the CYDY shorts).

CYDY COVID Revenue per Share
Assume Net Revenue is 50% of Gross Revenue
10% Global Market Share = $110 in revenue/share
25% Global Market Share = $274 in revenue/share
50% Global Market Share = $548 in revenue/share
75% Global Market Share = $823 in revenue/share (think MEGA licensing agreement)

I'm a first time poster - long time (2 month) forum reader with a civil engineering background.