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NY Gold Nearest Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 23, 2020

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 173550 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 152310. We did elect one Daily Bullish Reversal. This market has elected Bullish Reversals on all five time levels suggesting it is still in a bullish posture.


Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 173220 and resistance at 173573 and 174693 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 172900 and 172916. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 173866 174850. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 172883
Weekly ....... 168370
Monthly ...... 150723
Quarterly .... 136607
Yearly ....... 112340

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Presently, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 281540 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 22nd would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2019, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2019.

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Monthly to Yearly indicating models while the Weekly is still positive but showing signs of overhead resistance.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 7.45%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

After the historical high was established during 2020, a major low was created on 04/21/2020 at 166620 which was 23 days from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 171976 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 178026 which provides the general overall trading channel and only exceeding that on a closing basis will signal a real breakout to the upside while a break of the bottom defined by the Uptrend Line will signal a move to the downside thereafter.

Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2020 to the subsequent reaction high of 177580 formed 24 days thereafter resides at 177310. This is providing the visual technical resistance which we have remained below at this moment in time.

The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 177580 to the subsequent reaction high of 175760 stands at 173030 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 160110. A break of this support with a closing below it will suggest a correction is unfolding. However, an intraday penetration of this support with a close back above would suggest that market could pause briefly.

The perspective from our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are flipping from negative to positive. The low on our Energy Models too place 3 days ago. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new highs.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Gold Nearest Futures is in a bullish position on our broader long-term models reflecting that bull market remains in play. The NY Gold Nearest Futures is in a neutral position on the weekly short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS

Addressing the longer-term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2025, 2027 and 2029. We show a potential for a decline moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2025. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 126730 is penetrated even intraday.

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