Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[finesand]

bucks- Let's check Pharmasset 2011 value

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmasset

Need to try figuring out Pharmasset value at that given time,
as you can see below, all drugs were in mid-stage at best.

I.e. within phase 2 maximum and without having reach primary endpoints, as Pro-140 has reached for ph2b/3 already and safety is given via long term studies and mono.

Interest comparison indeed, i.e. how high is the early BO discount? Here it was like 10x above our evaluation, i.e. they reached 1/10th of our eval-1:

They got $11B, 55% of $20B accumulated 10 year peak revenue in early/mid stage phase-2:

Using eval-2, we would have roughly $15B accumulated 10 year peak revenue, now in mid- and late-stage. They mostly got bought due to Hepatitis B + C.

Since our drug is more matured we should gain a higher BO price, however, 55% of $15B would make $8.25B or
- $19.47/sh (O-5) or
- $30.11/sh at current fully diluted OS.

Not bad - go for it :)

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November 21, 2011 Gilead to Buy Pharmasset for $11 Billion to Win in Hepatitis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-11-21/gilead-to-acquire-pharmasset-for-11-billion-to-add-hepatitis-c-medicines

Gilead Sciences Inc., the world’s largest maker of HIV medicines, agreed to buy Pharmasset Inc. for about $11 billion, betting that its experimental hepatitis C treatments will lead the next generation of therapies in a market that may reach $20 billion by 2020.

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Clevudine HBV phase3+ failed post BO around 2014-2017
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clevudine
- https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=Clevudine&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=

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Racivir HIV

Passed phase-1 and phase-2 at that time - no update since.
- https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=Racivir&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
- http://www.thebody.com/content/69613/an-overview-of-racivir.html