Tuesday, December 05, 2017 4:48:14 AM
Lots Of Alabama Voters Care About Roy Moore’s Scandals
"CHRISTIANITY IS POLITICAL. BUT AMERICA'S POLITICALLY ACTIVE CHRISTIANS SEEM TO BE FORGETTING THAT."
Dec. 4, 2017 at 5:58 AM
But it might not be enough to stop him from winning.
By Nate Silver
U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore at a rally on Thursday in Dora, Alabama.
Brynn Anderson / AP
Roy Moore, who has been accused by two women of initiating unwanted sexual contact with them when they were underaged, is back in the lead in the most recent polls of Alabama’s Senate race. Although it’s still anyone’s election — turnout is hard to model in special elections and Moore’s lead is narrow — he has to be considered at least a modest favorite.
If Moore wins, you’re liable to see a lot of commentary along the lines of what the notoriously corrupt Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards said when seeking to regain Louisiana’s governorship in 1983: “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.” (Edwards won by 26 percentage points.) Or, if you prefer a more recent example, what President Trump said about his political base in 2016: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” That is to say, a Moore win would be taken as a canonical example of how politicians can get away with almost anything — even allegedly molesting two teenage girls — and still win elections so long as their base remains loyal to them.
The truth is a little more complicated than that. Moore — even if he wins by a few points — will have vastly underperformed a typical Republican in Alabama. He’ll have benefitted from running in a highly partisan epoch in a deeply red state and from drawing an opponent in Democrat Doug Jones who has fairly liberal policy views, including on abortion. If Alabama were just slightly less red — say, if it were South Carolina or Texas instead — Jones would be on track to win, perhaps by a comfortable margin. In Alabama, he’s an underdog. Nonetheless, the marginal effect of the allegations and of Moore’s other controversies may be fairly large.
It’s really hard for a Democrat to win in Alabama
[...]
Alabama is really, really red
Republican margin of victory or defeat in recent elections
With links .. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lots-of-alabama-voters-care-about-roy-moores-scandalous-past/
"CHRISTIANITY IS POLITICAL. BUT AMERICA'S POLITICALLY ACTIVE CHRISTIANS SEEM TO BE FORGETTING THAT."
Dec. 4, 2017 at 5:58 AM
But it might not be enough to stop him from winning.
By Nate Silver
U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore at a rally on Thursday in Dora, Alabama.
Brynn Anderson / AP
Roy Moore, who has been accused by two women of initiating unwanted sexual contact with them when they were underaged, is back in the lead in the most recent polls of Alabama’s Senate race. Although it’s still anyone’s election — turnout is hard to model in special elections and Moore’s lead is narrow — he has to be considered at least a modest favorite.
If Moore wins, you’re liable to see a lot of commentary along the lines of what the notoriously corrupt Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards said when seeking to regain Louisiana’s governorship in 1983: “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.” (Edwards won by 26 percentage points.) Or, if you prefer a more recent example, what President Trump said about his political base in 2016: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” That is to say, a Moore win would be taken as a canonical example of how politicians can get away with almost anything — even allegedly molesting two teenage girls — and still win elections so long as their base remains loyal to them.
The truth is a little more complicated than that. Moore — even if he wins by a few points — will have vastly underperformed a typical Republican in Alabama. He’ll have benefitted from running in a highly partisan epoch in a deeply red state and from drawing an opponent in Democrat Doug Jones who has fairly liberal policy views, including on abortion. If Alabama were just slightly less red — say, if it were South Carolina or Texas instead — Jones would be on track to win, perhaps by a comfortable margin. In Alabama, he’s an underdog. Nonetheless, the marginal effect of the allegations and of Moore’s other controversies may be fairly large.
It’s really hard for a Democrat to win in Alabama
[...]
Alabama is really, really red
Republican margin of victory or defeat in recent elections
With links .. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lots-of-alabama-voters-care-about-roy-moores-scandalous-past/
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
