Monday, December 04, 2017 6:47:40 PM
Is It Time For Republicans To Panic?
Nov. 9, 2017 at 4:47 PM
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
[...]
micah: Final thoughts?
perry: Final thought: The Republicans should have been worried about 2018 before Tuesday, and Tuesday should make them even more worried.
But I actually don’t know how realistic it is to expect them to change course. Trump is going to Trump. They have a voter base that likes Trumpism. They have members in Congress and a donor base that likes unpopular policies. And they are internally divided on politics and policy, making it hard to shift course.
harry: Republicans have got to figure out something because what they’re doing right now isn’t working. Even if they don’t lose the House, their majority will probably be greatly diminished. That, of course, will only make it more difficult to pass legislation.
natesilver: I think the most important decisions that Republicans made already happened: The approach they took to health care, the approach they’re taking toward taxes, their failure to do anything on infrastructure, etc.
I’m not saying the cake is necessarily baked — there’s a lot of uncertainty, and there are going to be new things to react to all the time, since the president is Donald Trump. But I don’t think there’s any magic plan to avoid a Democratic wave. It may be out of their control. They just have to hope Trump matures a bit in his second year in office, the economy stays pretty good, Democrats give them an opening or two, etc.
But they’re running into the wind, as parties almost are when they’re trying to defend Congress and their president is unpopular.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-time-for-republicans-to-panic/?src=obsidebar=sb_1
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https://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/daily-cartoon/monday-december-4th-gop-tax-plan
Nov. 9, 2017 at 4:47 PM
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
[...]
micah: Final thoughts?
perry: Final thought: The Republicans should have been worried about 2018 before Tuesday, and Tuesday should make them even more worried.
But I actually don’t know how realistic it is to expect them to change course. Trump is going to Trump. They have a voter base that likes Trumpism. They have members in Congress and a donor base that likes unpopular policies. And they are internally divided on politics and policy, making it hard to shift course.
harry: Republicans have got to figure out something because what they’re doing right now isn’t working. Even if they don’t lose the House, their majority will probably be greatly diminished. That, of course, will only make it more difficult to pass legislation.
natesilver: I think the most important decisions that Republicans made already happened: The approach they took to health care, the approach they’re taking toward taxes, their failure to do anything on infrastructure, etc.
I’m not saying the cake is necessarily baked — there’s a lot of uncertainty, and there are going to be new things to react to all the time, since the president is Donald Trump. But I don’t think there’s any magic plan to avoid a Democratic wave. It may be out of their control. They just have to hope Trump matures a bit in his second year in office, the economy stays pretty good, Democrats give them an opening or two, etc.
But they’re running into the wind, as parties almost are when they’re trying to defend Congress and their president is unpopular.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-time-for-republicans-to-panic/?src=obsidebar=sb_1
--
https://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/daily-cartoon/monday-december-4th-gop-tax-plan
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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