A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks Karl, Re: ST Treasury Coupon rate...........

A year ago it was just 0.53% and even that was a massive improvement from where it bottomed.

Value Line's current median estimated yield is around 2%, so the stock market isn't being threatened by the current 1.3% yield of the 13 Week Treasury. Value Line is predicting that the 13 Week Treasury rate will rise to around 1.9% by Q1, 2019. They speculate the 10 Year Treasury rate will rise from it's current 2.3-2.4% range to around 3.2% over the same time frame. The Long Bond rate is supposed to rise to around 4.2% from its current ~3% level.

These rate trends will put some pressure on the stock market as they start to compete with average stock yields with lower potential risk. As the trend is realized, it should also put pressure on bond fund NAVs. We should be able to do some buying of bond funds if the pressure is great enough to stimulate AIM's Purchasing Department.

Right now my income and stock ETF AIM engines are mostly at maximum cash reserve levels relative to market risk. For now it is a comfortable position to have.

Thanks for that summary. I am impressed with the way it works.