SC, From a chart perspective, the rise of Bitcoin has actually been fairly orderly. While the percentage moves are big, it always has a pullback and consolidation for a period of months, going sideways long enough to establish a solid base to support the next move up.
Last summer I considered a small position in the Bitcoin ETF (GBTC), but instead went with the gold miners ETF. It hasn't done much so far, but 2018 is setting up be a wild/crazy year so we'll see what happens. Mainly I've been using the sideways metals market to accumulate more physical gold/silver. China, Russia, and others are aggressively building up their gold reserves. It seems only prudent to prepare for the day when the US dollar loses its global role to the SDRs. The de-dollarization of world trade is accelerating, and the petrodollar system is crumbling.
War with North Korea next year seems increasingly likely. They did another missile test this week and I was surprised to see the stock market surge higher that day. What happens to stocks may be the least of our worries if a full war breaks out with N. Korea. The scenarios look pretty grim since the US will likely have to occupy the country to dismantle their nuclear program, which is mainly underground.
Tough to figure out this market, but the longer term chart is starting to look parabolic over the past year, like an unsustainable melt-up. I still wouldn't go short though, not until the market stops going up and starts to deteriorate. We're definitely in bubble land, but the bubble could continue inflating longer than we think, with the passage of the tax cut bill adding even more air.
A few bottom plays to watch - TEVA, GE. Both have issues, but might be worth a look for a gradual recovery if you're patient. But problem is, nearing the end of the 9 year bull market it's tough to think long term and be patient. Hence the appeal of Bitcoin speculation, no need to be patient, just double your money in a week..
