Vericel Corp. (VCEL)

[commoncentsinvestor]

How easy will it be to get to $10 per share?
Let's start by assuming that using a PE of 20, it would take .50 in earnings to have a share price of $10.
So how do we get to an EPS of .50?
With 34M shares it would take $17M net profit to achieve .50 EPS
Break even takes about $80M in revenues. So to get the additional $17M would take another $34M for a total of $114M in revenues.
It appears that Epicel will be doing about $20M in revenues.
So it would take another $94M in MACI revenues.
At $39,000 per surgery it would take 2400 surgeries to do $94M MACI revs.
With 440 trained surgeons it would take an average of about 5 1/2 per surgeon per year to accomplish that. With an estimated total market for MACI surgeries in the U.S. of 20,000 per year, to hit this goal would amount to capturing only 12% of the market. Seems like a sure thing to me.