S&P 500 Analysis & ETF Trading

[kiy]

SENTIMENT...MOMENTUM...MEAN REVERSION
...the Stock Market doesn't reflect the real world...the companies have accounting regulations...they will do what they are supposed to do (most of the time)...stock market or not...

If someone tried to get me to explain fundamental analysis I couldn't. When the brokerCROOKS come out with their price targets; they are making more assumptions about a company's valuation than I will ever do when talking about technicals and how to anticipate moves out of overbought or oversold...

The Stock Market is a Casino...it feeds on news/HYPE... and crowd behavior=Sentiment...some companies get a 15 price to earnings...some get a 25 P/E...and then there's TSLA that has no earnings and has a very inflated price...all you really can do is trade the technicals...

I can't explain why Silver is so cheap...but I can tell you if its making a turn in oversold or I can tell you if it is trending...

I tell everyone to leave BitCoin alone until Banks become willing to use BitCoin...a major bull market doesn't mean its not hype...not pure speculation...or not a bubble; it just means take some profits along the way and wait for it to get oversold and re-load your position. Technical indicators will define oversold overbought...buy low sell high...
Enjoy...

Sentiment
The Market is a giant feedback loop, showing traders (and anyone who views the market) a thermometer reading of the social mood under which traders, and by extension society, are operating. Most traders seem to think of the market as something that has some external value outside of the price attributed to it by traders. I prefer to think of it as a real-time gauge of a society’s view of their own productive capacity…or more simply put–social mood.

When Markets are understood, the idea that everyone can make money is not only inaccurate but impossible and laughable. Everyone making money means there is no market, because who would be willing to take the other side of the trade?

In addition, most traders feel they can move with the crowd to make a (paper) profit, and then get out before the crowd, turning that trade into a real profit. In theory this is sound, but remember everyone else is setting out to do the same thing. It is this crowd movement which allows traders to make money at times. Without a large portion of traders coming to the same decision markets simply would not move. It takes conviction by many traders to create a trend, then it takes euphoric acceptance that “this is the new norm” to end it and “bend it. ” It then takes mass disillusionment to crash it the other way. (vantagepointtrading.com)

Regression to the Mean is the most powerful law in financial physics
Mean reversions out of extremes are the most powerful and profitable forces in all the financial markets. Riding one has enormous benefits for your wealth.
Financial-market prices and sentiment are like a giant pendulum. The farther they are pulled to one extreme by excessive greed or fear, the farther they necessarily swing to the opposite extreme in the subsequent mean reversion. Like pendulums, these reversions don’t magically stop right in the middle at normal again. Their kinetic momentum carries them through to the opposite ends of their arcs. But overshoot extremes don’t last for long, as the universal greed necessary to fuel them quickly burns itself out.

Markets are not about beliefs, but about sentiment. And, if you can track sentiment, If you can measure sentiment... then you are in a position to make your investment account grow without the need for excuses. (...this really is all you need to know about the Markets ...and it should be carved in stone...