ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)

[Just the facts maam]

DEVJ, any sale or merger would require shareholder approval. However unlike BPAX, ANIP's major shareholders appear aligned with management. MVP (Insider and Wells Fargo Subsidiary) and Blackrock(major shareholder) own over 30% of outstanding shares.

However you grossly underestimate the value of a Libigel deal. BPAX Management would not have been bound by a confidentiality agreement to remain silent on the CV event reduction discovery to merely double their shareholders investment, they too were shareholders. They could have done much better by simply going public with the discovery. This was a well thought out plan.

Anip has had to maintain the confidentiality agreement as well. Yet they gave up 43% of their company in the merger.

Check out Enanta which has a $920 million market cap based on their partnership with Abbvie. It is based on HCV products. Since Q2 they had revenue of $7.51 million , and loss $8.43 million and reported an EBITDA loss of $12.58 million. It is safe to say the PPS is based on potential sales of Mavyret. Enanta has no manufacturing capabilities and it appears that AbbVie has led the phase 3 trials. In addition, with respect to HCV, AbbVie faces strong competition from Gilead and possibly others. Evaluate Pharma is pegging Maryvet sales at $1.3 billion in 2022

Enanta Abbvie partnership

Mavyret

Contrast that to Libigel. BPAX took Libigel much further down the road on their own (1st part of Libigel safety/efficacy study over 7300 patient years of data). Therefore a potential co-promotion or royalty arrangement would be much more favorable than Enanta’s arrangement with AbbVie.

In addition, ANIP has manufacturing facilities. ANIP is profitable on its own and pipeline excluding Libigel and Corti drugs that will promote above average growth for years to come. The Corti drugs alone could increase cash flow 10 fold over 2016’s cash flow.

Libigel is a drug with a run rate that will exceed $3 billion in several quarters just by switching existing menopausal women using non FDA approved testosterone. That is the starting point, out of the gate before addressing CV benefits. Care to guess how high Libigel (or whatever it will be called) sales will be by 2022.

A favorable meeting with FDA for Corti justifies a sale of $150 to $200 per share (excluding Libigel). Add Libigel into the deal and you looking at 5 times as much, if not more for a fair deal.

JMHO