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Tuesday, November 14, 2017 2:13:31 PM
IR said to another shareholder that I know of BEFORE earnings---
1. The 57 unit order was approx $19K per unit and it came from AT&T. True? Turns out from the 10Q it was more like $21K per unit. In the cc call they said it was from a new Tier one buyer. = all true from IR.
2. they expect AT&T to follow up on the Puerto Rico deal with orders between 500-1000 units going forward. Is this true? In the cc call they talked about the initial 57 units plus and that this buyer has come back and followed up with more than a 100 plus already plus more orders coming each day. This is the also the Tier one that they said would move orders from 1rst Q into 4th Q. = part of it is true so far. We'll see how it plays out.
3. IR also said to this shareholder that T-mobile is coming into the picture and company expects them to put in orders similar to AT&T. True? In cc call they did deliver the reconfigured unit at a lower cost to a 3rd Tier one buyer (this is T-mobile). = part of it is true so far. It needs follow up orders to really decide what direction it's going.
The CEO did say that their new Tier 1 U.S. companies kept them extremely busy in 3rd Q with the back/forth in getting the engineering down. Will this lead to orders that the IR guy said could potentially happen?
In 10Q, it shows Verizon was $2.2M of the $3.0M in revenue for the quarter. In the cc call they said it was refiguring of old sites, but not new sites as Verizon is holding off on those right now. Will they come back in full force later? Will they use Polar Power for 5g sites?
If Verizon kept at $2.2M per quarter and AT&T and T-mobile matched that (though if they really did 1000-2000 units combined, that's over $30M in orders), but let's keep it small......everyone does $2.2M x 3 = $6.6M/qtr. That's a solid business then. Toss in military. Get international going----in the 10Q they said they now have 8 sales execs worldwide with a supporting staff of 9 people---things could get interesting. They are qualified with 32 international carriers now with another 40 to go.
Dec 31rst 2016: $7.2M in revenue in 4th Q from being sales to just one Tier 1 U.S. company.
Today: $XX in revenue in 4th Q from three Tier 1 companies in the U.S., potential for 4th (Sprint), world sales operations set up going after RFP's of $100M+, approved to sell to 32 international carriers with 40 more coming.
If they sold 1000 units/qtr this stock is a huge winner. Can they do it is the question? They seem to be lining themselves up to go for it.
This stock could be a heartbreaker or this stock could be a home run. I think the downside risk is 20% and the upside is 100% if it came through half-ass. 200% if they pulled it all off.
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