Hey buddy, Im a bit pessimistic in my old age. I'd like to think 60/40. Agreed the KOL and the timelines recently of news and events would suggest higher, but one never knows in this world. Hoping for some bread crumbs this afternoon at the quarterly. On the bright side, it seems that the regulatory environment with drug approvals will hopefully continue to improve and effects may trickle down to the prices of some similar lower cap biotechs, and then us as well. So in a few ways time is on our side here. Writing up the results of a study this large (both in site number and endpoint variables) is quite a task, I really can't understate that... so I am still thinking we are well within the timeframe of waiting for results. This drug is their baby. They essentially created an entire company around it, and have only been taking cash to further their pipeline. Ligand watched it sold on the black market for years, big bucks, I think they have the best idea of what this drugs true monetiziation value is, and that's likely why they chose to as of now, not partner. If they had a just ok or borderline ok drug, or one that would make them some money but not rich, I think they would have partnered long ago. Or, that they are savvy enough to lead on that they are and convince someone to bankroll us on favorable terms before the end of the road and phase 3's. 10 years in the making and now just a few days from results. It's known as ligandrol for a reason, and ligand has put in a ton of work to get this thing here, and in multiple ways has its name sake attached to this. I think they are going to play this very careful and be detail oriented, they will only get one chance to get the narrative right, people love to criticize not only drug trials themselves, but also the ways in which the data is analyzed and interpreted, so there is just a lot at play here for these guys. I also think this will make waves in the press eventually, if data good. I can picture it now, foxnews special, showing grandma next to some bodybuilder, explaining how they are both on the same drug, really doing it up, explaining why this drug represents a paradigm shift and has broad reaching potential ;) Ligand has held for 10 years, i think I can hold another 10 days haha. 70/30 may be close brother. Either way, gonna be interesting. Take care
