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MANAFORT INDICTMENT IS BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP
By NORMAN EISEN, NOAH BOOKBINDER and BARRY BERKE, OCT, 30, 2017

Just hours after the revelation of federal indictments against President Trump’s former campaign chairman and chief strategist, Paul Manafort, and his former campaign deputy, Rick Gates, the administration’s first response came in the form, of course, of a tweet from the president: “Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren’t Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus?????”

Expect to hear this line repeatedly from the president and his defenders: The indictments, on charges of money laundering and conspiracy, are a vindication of President Trump because he was not charged and because of the absence of allegations about campaign collusion with Russia. But they’re wrong — the president should be very worried.

For one thing, it is now clear that President Trump closely relied upon Mr. Manafort and Mr. Gates while they were engaged in alleged criminal activity. That is a damning indictment of the president’s judgment. Their prosecution will hang over him and his administration for the foreseeable future, since these proceedings will continue for many months, and perhaps years. And these are unlikely to be the last of the charges pursued by Robert Mueller, the special counsel, who is also reported to be looking at other actors, including the president himself.

The idea that Mr. Manafort’s indictment vindicates Mr. Trump also ignores how complex criminal investigations typically proceed, and the attendant peril Mr. Trump now faces. In our half century of collective experience prosecuting and defending criminal cases, we have watched repeatedly as prosecutors charged lower-level individuals with readily provable offenses that are distinct from the core conduct and targets that are the primary focus of the prosecutor’s investigation.

It’s also significant that Mr. Mueller threw the book at Mr. Manafort and Mr. Gates. Because the federal sentencing guidelines recommend a significant prison sentence for money-laundering offenses and are largely driven by the dollar amounts involved in the crime, this indictment, which involves millions of dollars, puts tremendous pressure on them to make a cooperation deal with the special counsel’s office to try to reduce the lengthy prison sentences each could face.

The power of this “squeeze play” approach is demonstrated by the other filing released today, reflecting a guilty plea by George Papadopoulos, a former Trump foreign policy adviser who admits to communications with foreign individuals during the campaign, including at least one about the Russians’ possessing “dirt” concerning Hillary Clinton “in the form of ‘thousands of emails.’ ” Mr. Papadopoulos lied about these engagements when questioned, and was caught doing so. When confronted with the prospect of jail time, he decided to cooperate. His statements constitute yet another troubling quantum of evidence that the Trump campaign may have known about and encouraged the Russian intrusion on our elections — so-called collusion.

The Papadopoulos plea was finalized this month, and it’s no coincidence that Mr. Mueller held off announcing it until today. It’s a clear signal to Mr. Manafort and Mr. Gates about how they should proceed — and how much the special counsel wants them to. Mr. Manafort was privy to the inner workings of the Trump campaign, and he attended the now-famous June 2016 meeting between Donald Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner and apparent Russian emissaries. Should Mr. Manafort cooperate, he would be an important witness as to what those in attendance said about the event before, during and after — and whether Mr. Trump himself was briefed on it.

Mr. Gates, though less well known, was also intertwined with Mr. Trump, including during the administration itself. If Mr. Mueller can secure his cooperation through a plea or immunity, he too can offer a wealth of information, including what he did, who he met with and what he discussed in his White House visits. To take another example, Mr. Gates’ colleagues in a pro-Trump outside group he worked with in the first months of the administration included Brad Parscale, the Trump campaign’s digital director. Mr. Mueller would surely be interested in knowing whether Mr. Parscale ever offered any indication that he was aware of or cooperated with Russian cyber-intrusions during the campaign.

Finally, what do today’s developments tell us about the largest questions of all: whether Mr. Mueller is going to bring charges against Mr. Trump himself relating to campaign collusion with Russia, or obstruction? We can’t answer those questions yet, but the seriousness and speed of today’s indictments suggests that if there is a case to be made on either of those grounds, Mr. Mueller will make it. We believe the greatest risk to Mr. Trump remains the possibility that he obstructed justice by firing the former F.B.I. director James Comey. The fact that Mr. Mueller has found enough evidence to bring credible charges in just five months suggests that he is moving forward with determination and skill. For anyone in the path of his investigation who has committed an offense, that cannot be welcome news.
-NY TIMES, October 30, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/30/opinion/manafort-indictment-trump-russia.html?ribbon-ad-idx=3&src=trending&module=Ribbon&version=origin®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Trending&pgtype=article

Norman Eisen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, is the chairman of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Noah Bookbinder is the executive director of CREW and a former federal corruption prosecutor. Barry Berke is a co-chairman of the litigation department at Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel, where he is a partner specializing in white-collar criminal defense.