Rab, As you can see from the posts, some do not think there will be a buy out any time soon, if at all, and others believe differently. The truth is none of us know because we don’t have all the inside information that Tony and his team have. We are simply too far from the details and facts. So having said that, this is my opinion.
My understanding is the company wouldn’t take $4 a share at this moment. Reason being they believe the value of Combo approval alone is worth a minimum of $3-$4 a share and with strong Mono data there is a high probability for expanding the label increasing market size substantially beyond Combo. In addition GVHD adds value and could be a driver for a buy out or partner.
Regardless, my opinion in predicting a buy out target date and valuation is pure speculation. I am translating what I believe the companies strategy is.
Meeting Combo PE is the first milestone that must be accomplished to garner real attention. Then their are a number of milestones that could trigger a buy out or a partnership.
Results from first 10 patients enrolled GVHD.
Full enrollment Mono Trial.
Safety data from 300 patients.
Mono data.
Submission of Combo BLA.
It is quite possible somewhere in this de-risking process a buyer steps up. So to answer your question any time after Combo PE is PR’d a buy out is possible. I also believe a R/S is inevitable Q1 2018. It is imperative to get off the OTC and on the NASDAQ and it’s not going to happen organically.
Some of the forecasts on this board in terms of Combo Trial completion, Mono Trial completion, BLA submission, and FDA approval are well thought out and accurate in that they are forecasts that an change. A17 and Fred are smart people that understand the reality of BioTech and the FDA process. In addition Murphy’s law is always in play with the FDA as things rarely go as planned. When a buy out or partnership will take place in this process or if at all is an educated guess at best and we are all entitled to our opinion.
The question or debate is; how much de-risking, or more precisely how far will Pro-140 need to go down the FDA approval process to be bought out and how long will it take. The company believes well short of completing the P3 Mono Trial or FDA Approval. In my mind that translates to 2H 2018 so that is a more precise answer to your question.
From my perspective below is the conundrum we will find ourselves in as we start 2018 when de-risking gains real traction increasing the odds of a potential buy out.
It only takes one to force another’s hand. I was thinking last night it is similar to the popular Television singing program called “The Voice”. If your not familiar with the show there are four recording artists that make up the judges. They sit in big chairs that are turned away from the singer so they have to judge based on the contestants voice only, not their appearance. If they like what they hear and want an opportunity to have them on their team they push a button and their chair turns around. Generally what happens is the singer may sound good but the celebrities look at each other to see if anybody sees enough talent to push the button. Often times nobody pushes the button, however when one judge pushes the button most often others follow. All the judges that turned their chair compete for the contestant. It is very rare that just one chair turns because if one recording artist believes their is talent the perceived value increases and they don’t want to lose out on what may be a winner. Again the milllon $ question is what will it take to get that first serious suitor to pull the trigger for Pro-140? Obviously until somebody shows interest the crowd will hold out and watch. Consequently I think the first offer most likely will not come from those companies that already control the space. The bottom line is “fear of loss” has always been the most powerful motivator rather than the “anticipation of gain”.
Sorry for the long analogy but I do believe this is a chess game that is based on much more than just the scientific value of Pro-140 as an HIV solution. For example Gilead would like to see this science go away because they already control the space and Pro-140 doesn’t generate additional revenue for them, it cannibalizes the drugs they already have. So from Gilead’s perspective why would they pay for something that will not increase the bottom line. The answer is they won’t until they are forced to because of the fear of loss in the form of a competing company making a play that threatens their space.
The tipping point is what we are all patiently waiting for. Unfortunately it is impossible to predict. The chess game has to play out and we are all anxious spectators that have placed our betts eagerly awaiting the outcome.
GLTA.
