Here are couple of facts to take into account.
A. Generally speaking, Wall Street is talking from 12 month’s view point. An individual’s investor’s advantage is he can buy with a longer time frame. There is little doubt absolutely nothing is happening here in the next couple of months, but by the time it does, Wall Street will be late to the party.
Example: I bought $ATVI at 10$, and held for about 5 years until the stock made ANY move. Wall Street was sell/hold. Today, at 60$+, analysts are piling in with Buy, but their return is much less than mine.
B. In most cases, Buy side analysts are focusing on a. Sufficiently large business (in terms of M. Cap) as microcaps cant accommodate large inflows of $ due to liquidity. b. As a service for fund raising to client (since they need to sell the stock issued). With Biotime, there is little reliance on Wall Street: it’s mostly funded by insiders, Directors who just hold the stock. So no analysts is retained to generate “hype”.
C. The Stem Cell biotech sector has a terrible record. There is no one company that made investors money. No one test to pass the FDA, nor any phase 3, 2. Dilution to zero is a common problem. In short, it’s a bitch trying to pitch an investor an idea about Stem Cell Medicine. Smart people “know “ it’s unproven territory.
As a result, the business is unfollowed and Investors (who got burned) are not watching.
Those that do, however, see the progress being made:
1. Several phase 1/2 - AST OPC, OpRegen progressing with fantastic results;
2. Several near term products about to hit the market within the next year or so: Oncocyte’s tests; Renevia.
3. Constant R&D generating more billion dollar opportunities (brown adipose Cell therapy at Agex, as an example)
4. Supreme financial dexterity: non dilutive financing such as grants from various sources, spinning off of daughter companies to shareholders and simplification of the financial reports.
I don’t care about the next 12 months. I believe BTX is easily a 15 billion dollar business in the next 10 years.
The reinvestment opportunities are amazing.
It is the Top Dog in the Stem Cell world, practically owning the Key IP in the embryonic sector.
It is the most advanced research wise.
It has the best heavily invested executives and board members.
It has an unbelievable back wind, mega trend propelling it: massive costs of treating the boomers + not enough funds to achieve this. Japan already stopped requiring efficiency tests in Stem Cell therapies, only safety, because their population is rapidly aging. The western world will have to follow, do the math.
Each on of these vectors can help. Together, they create what Charlie Munger refers to al lolapalooza effect.
And these companies?
You hold for a lifetime, as long as everything progresses as planned.
And progress is made.
I hope this helps.
