Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH)

[Altitrade Partners]

If this is a "pre-conference run-up" it is being driven by amateurs who think that attendees will be buying shares once they hear about CELH.

Unfortunately, many of those attendees are professionals who will give a great deal of weight to the valuation thesis.

We wouldn't be surprised to see even more shorts piling on once they see the rich valuation being assigned to CELH shares by the retail market.

The company's valuation (on a fully-diluted basis) is approximately $335 million at today's closing price.

Putting a 4X revenue number on the shares would require that CELH sales exceed $83 million for FY2017. They are currently at roughly $16 million for the first half of FY2017.

We believe that there's a lot of room for the share price to fall from here.