I threw that billion dollar figure out there, but I think it seems reasonable given that it’s a wide timeframe (3-5 years) and think Cryoport will gain a significant share of the overall growth in the cryogenic and cold chain logistics market going forward. Whether the value of CYRX gets to this value in 3 years or 5 years will depend upon how quickly the newly approved treatments ramp and their markets and labels are expanded, and the timing and ramping of BP outsourcing revenues, and other approvals and new contracts. And yes, I would anticipate warrants and options being exercised (not sure of expiration dates) over that time for an outstanding share count ~35M.
I haven’t done a full financial analysis of CYRX, but have looked at some research reports and analyst projections and think they are overly conservative because analysts are reluctant to add in the new revenue streams until they are more certain. For 2017, the consensus revenue estimate is ~$12M, and for 2018 it’s ~$19M. This is a good starting point. I think this year’s revenues might be closer to $13M-$14M due to the 33 new trials added (17 were estimated) in the 2nd quarter (1 quarter revenue lag) and initial revenues from NVS (and potentially KITE). In 2018, I think new therapies could ramp faster than analysts expect, trial revenues could nearly double, BP outsource revenues ramp, and I estimate revenues ~$23M. Based on this, my target price next year is mid to high teens. The following year, 2019, analysts estimates range between $25M and $38M. I think 2019 will be the breakout year for CYRX revenues and think they will be closer to $40M and my price target is mid 20’s. By 2020, revenues from NVS and KITE could be close to peak for the initial indications and Europe, with other indications and new contracts ramping up, so revenues could be $60M+ and a share price target of mid 30’s. So $35 x 30-35M shares outstanding = about 1B - 1.2B market cap.
And longer term, I can see this trend continuing; the contracts with NVS and KITE alone are potentially each worth more than $40M annually, so a CYRX stock price in the $40’s and $50’s within 5 years is entirely possible considering multiple other therapy approvals and new contracts. This is why I personally don’t want to see a buyout in the next couple of years unless it's at a huge premium. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the future holds.
