AI
Monday, September 18, 2017 2:27:07 AM
Threat to East Coast from Hurricane Jose increases; Maria upgraded to hurricane
By Greg Porter September 17 at 6:00 PM
[...]
After passing through the Caribbean islands, Maria is expected to continue on a general track toward the
northwest, which could put the storm in a threatening position for the U.S. East Coast by next weekend.
-
Ed Vallee ???
@EdValleeWx
#Maria needs to be watched for impacts in similar areas threatened
by #Irma. Another long track hurricane possible into next week.
10:03 PM - Sep 17, 2017
-
However, the large spread in forecast tracks seen above indicates low confidence beyond five days.
Jose and Maria: To dance or not to dance?
The dance routine between Jose and Maria shown in recent model runs is known as the Fujiwara effect, explained in greater detail .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/07/31/the-science-behind-this-strange-dance-between-hurricanes-hilary-and-irwin/?utm_term=.bd8a9f64eb6b .. a few weeks ago by our newest Capital Weather Gang contributor, Matthew Cappucci. It’s a rare phenomenon, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. It’s also an unlikely scenario, despite the recent model trends.
At issue is the placement and scope of two upper-level areas of high pressure by next weekend (as shown below). High pressure over the central Atlantic that trapped Jose last week will begin to weaken over the next few days, before restrengthening later. Meanwhile, another area of high pressure is expected to build over Ontario by next weekend. For Jose and Maria to interact and affect each other’s path, that Ontario high pressure would have to build over the top of Jose, to keep Jose from escaping out to sea. While that could happen, uncertainty remains high at this time.
The location of two upper-level high-pressure ridges by next weekend will have a major effect on the ultimate fates of Jose and Maria. (Tropical Tidbits)
In the meantime, Maria’s immediate threat to the Caribbean is very real and very dangerous, while Jose still bears watching for some impacts along the coast from Virginia to New England.
Dan Stillman contributed to this post.
-------
Something new for many from the comments
--
IrmaHangover
7:18 AM EST [Edited]
If Maria enters the Hebert box, Miami is in for another beating
15-20 degrees North and 60-65 degrees West is one Hebert box
LikeReplyShare
-
BennyCaleb
7:56 AM EST
Had to look that one up. Thanks for the education.
if anyone else would rather click a hyper link...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
--
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/17/maria-heading-toward-caribbean-while-jose-could-graze-east-coast-with-tropical-storm-conditions/?utm_term=.f18128758b0c#comments
By Greg Porter September 17 at 6:00 PM
[...]
After passing through the Caribbean islands, Maria is expected to continue on a general track toward the
northwest, which could put the storm in a threatening position for the U.S. East Coast by next weekend.
-
Ed Vallee ???
@EdValleeWx
#Maria needs to be watched for impacts in similar areas threatened
by #Irma. Another long track hurricane possible into next week.
10:03 PM - Sep 17, 2017
-
However, the large spread in forecast tracks seen above indicates low confidence beyond five days.
Jose and Maria: To dance or not to dance?
The dance routine between Jose and Maria shown in recent model runs is known as the Fujiwara effect, explained in greater detail .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/07/31/the-science-behind-this-strange-dance-between-hurricanes-hilary-and-irwin/?utm_term=.bd8a9f64eb6b .. a few weeks ago by our newest Capital Weather Gang contributor, Matthew Cappucci. It’s a rare phenomenon, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. It’s also an unlikely scenario, despite the recent model trends.
At issue is the placement and scope of two upper-level areas of high pressure by next weekend (as shown below). High pressure over the central Atlantic that trapped Jose last week will begin to weaken over the next few days, before restrengthening later. Meanwhile, another area of high pressure is expected to build over Ontario by next weekend. For Jose and Maria to interact and affect each other’s path, that Ontario high pressure would have to build over the top of Jose, to keep Jose from escaping out to sea. While that could happen, uncertainty remains high at this time.
The location of two upper-level high-pressure ridges by next weekend will have a major effect on the ultimate fates of Jose and Maria. (Tropical Tidbits)
In the meantime, Maria’s immediate threat to the Caribbean is very real and very dangerous, while Jose still bears watching for some impacts along the coast from Virginia to New England.
Dan Stillman contributed to this post.
-------
Something new for many from the comments
--
IrmaHangover
7:18 AM EST [Edited]
If Maria enters the Hebert box, Miami is in for another beating
15-20 degrees North and 60-65 degrees West is one Hebert box
LikeReplyShare
-
BennyCaleb
7:56 AM EST
Had to look that one up. Thanks for the education.
if anyone else would rather click a hyper link...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
--
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/17/maria-heading-toward-caribbean-while-jose-could-graze-east-coast-with-tropical-storm-conditions/?utm_term=.f18128758b0c#comments
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