Verastem (VSTM)

[BobDoleYahoo]

**** MUST READ !!! ****

I must have missed this when reading it a few days ago. "[Mara] Goldstein said the drug could generate more than $400 million in sales within five years of its launch.". Generally drug sales might go up 15-20% per year when you first start selling. If we do the math backwards and reduce it by random 15-20% amounts:

1 year from now: 185 million (will probably be a fraction of this due to FDA approval either late 2018 or early/mid 2019)
2 years from now: 231 million (full year)
3 years from now: 289 million
4 years from now: 340 million
5 years from now: 400 million

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verastems-blood-cancer-drug-succeeds-105947118.html

As for Arzerra's (ofatumumab) low revenue, I'm seeing that Arzerra couldn't compete with Rituxan and Imbruvica.

http://bit.ly/2xgjVnD

In just one quarter alone, Imbruvica (ibrutinib) had half a billion in sales. I'm sure it has other indications it's used for too, but still, you get the picture:

"Fourth-quarter global IMBRUVICA [ibrutinib] net revenue was $511 million, with U.S. sales of $434 million and international profit sharing of $77 million for the quarter."

Arzerra has low revenue (I don't have the figures though), yet even when Glaxosmithkline's tests showed Arzerra was no better than Rituxan in some lymphoma trials, Novartis was willing to pay $1 billion to buy Arzerra.

Now here's the interesting part:

Here we have ibrutinib vs ofatumumab in Phase 3 head to head:

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1400376#t=article

Summary of ibrutinib vs ofatumumab:

1. ibrutinib (Imbruvica) was statistically superior.
2. ibrutinib's PFS was 9.4 months vs ofatumumab's 8.1 months. Ratio = 9.4/8.1 = 1.16
3. ibrutinib had an "overall" 57% reduction in the risk of progression/death.

Summary of Verasem's drug (duvelisib) vs ofatumumab:

1. duvelisib was statistically superior.
2. duvelisib's PFS is 13.3 months vs ofatumumab's 9.9 months. Ratio = 13.3/9.9 = 1.34
3. duvelisib had a 48% (unsure if "overall" or specific groups) reduction in the risk of progression/death.

I don't know about you guys, but if someone is selling at these levels, they are either really dumb, really ignorant, or need the money badly.

To the friggen moon!!!!!!!!!!!!!