Thursday, August 24, 2017 5:49:38 AM
The Struggle Continues, AMRS Shall State end of Dilution
I can add the following findings regarding insecurity of investors and the short thesis:
- $4.26 is the next T-1 T-2 AD Warrants threshold.
- TAB R&D Noted of $3.7M to be payed until EOY '17. If done in cash great, if using equity at lowered conversion price down it goes.
- $20.7M 10% pa interest Guanfu Credit left, which could be payed in equity at 90% VWAP of 90d closing price as well. Same thing here, if using equity, down it goes.
Above are two potential triggers for lowering the T-1 T-2 Cash-Warrant conversion prices, which is truly feared. I spoke with one long term short holder at $3.50 and she is using this 'instrument'.
The Vivo deal already brought down the conversion price and triggered AD Warrants with DSM's blessing - might have been even their requirement to average down further.
Now the price tag for them is at $5.30 for conversions.
What poor retail surely needs to know from the company is, whether they will pay down the mentioned debt in cash and end the dilution spiral reducing common's stake in the company.
If that can be assure by the company, the awaited recovery at least around $5.30 matching purchase average should work out.
It is a struggle between trust, opportunity and deception.
Especially deception plays a big role in here, some even thought T-1 would have been offered above $17/sh not doing the dilutive math in detail, bringing it down to $6.30. Now - again - we are at $5.30. Tough decisions and chart seems to capture just that.
I can add the following findings regarding insecurity of investors and the short thesis:
- $4.26 is the next T-1 T-2 AD Warrants threshold.
- TAB R&D Noted of $3.7M to be payed until EOY '17. If done in cash great, if using equity at lowered conversion price down it goes.
- $20.7M 10% pa interest Guanfu Credit left, which could be payed in equity at 90% VWAP of 90d closing price as well. Same thing here, if using equity, down it goes.
Above are two potential triggers for lowering the T-1 T-2 Cash-Warrant conversion prices, which is truly feared. I spoke with one long term short holder at $3.50 and she is using this 'instrument'.
The Vivo deal already brought down the conversion price and triggered AD Warrants with DSM's blessing - might have been even their requirement to average down further.
Now the price tag for them is at $5.30 for conversions.
What poor retail surely needs to know from the company is, whether they will pay down the mentioned debt in cash and end the dilution spiral reducing common's stake in the company.
If that can be assure by the company, the awaited recovery at least around $5.30 matching purchase average should work out.
It is a struggle between trust, opportunity and deception.
Especially deception plays a big role in here, some even thought T-1 would have been offered above $17/sh not doing the dilutive math in detail, bringing it down to $6.30. Now - again - we are at $5.30. Tough decisions and chart seems to capture just that.
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