Saturday, August 19, 2017 7:49:39 PM
Trump’s job growth nightmare: His first year could be slower than Obama’s last
"Obama’s Legacy -- Nearly 450 Obama Accomplishments, With Citations"
By Max Ehrenfreund July 6
Economic expansion in the United States may be slowing down — rather than just beginning, as President Trump hopes. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
President Trump is touting data on the economy, telling his supporters that things are getting better for American workers. Not all professional forecasters share that enthusiasm, though, and many of them believe that this is about as good as it is going to get.
According to the average forecast among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, U.S. employers combined will add 165,000 workers to their payrolls a month this year, on net. That would be the slowest pace for hiring since 2010. Under President Barack Obama last year, the economy produced an average of 187,000 jobs a month.
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its monthly report on hiring Friday morning with figures for June, data on the labor market will be available for the first half of the year. Through May, the average pace was 162,000 new employees a month.
That is slower than not only last year, but also the year before, when the economy added 226,000 jobs a month on average. In 2015, the monthly pace averaged 250,000. Recent employment data is always subject to substantial revisions, however, and many economists believe that the agency does not adequately account for unpredictable weather in late winter in early spring. Unexpected storms or warmth can dampen the economy.
The more modest forecasts indicate that many economists believe the labor market is nearing its limits. When unemployment was widespread after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, plenty of people were available when businesses went looking for workers. The fact that many of those people now have jobs, combined with the aging population, will make hiring slower and costlier, economists say.
“The economy is doing good,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at investment firm Raymond James. “In fact, it’s probably doing as good as it can.”
Trump, though, is touting the numbers as evidence of his successful stewardship.
“Really great numbers on jobs & the economy!” the president wrote on Twitter ..
Economists said that given that the president has only been in office for a few months, it is unlikely that his policies have had an effect on the economy so far.
-
IMAGE: Jobs added under each president .. How healthy is Trump's economy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/jobs-report/?utm_term=.ad4f2f384fab .. and inside that one this one
[ The economy President Trump loves looks a lot like the one candidate Trump hated ..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/03/the-economy-president-trump-loves-looks-a-lot-like-the-one-candidate-trump-hated/ ]
-
Political decisions can have important consequences over the long run, but economic policy — such as choices about taxes and investments in research, education and infrastructure — rarely produce substantial short-term benefits.
“The president or whoever’s in charge of the White House and Congress don’t have that much influence about the current state of the economy,” Brown said. “It’s really more long term in nature, but typically, the president gets all the credit or all the blame.”
Trump, meanwhile, has not yet signed legislation for any of his three major economic priorities, which include restructuring the tax system, rebuilding the country's physical infrastructure and undoing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
Many businesses and households have become more confident in the state of the economy as a result of Trump's promises, said Brian Wesbury, the chief economist at First Trust Advisors in Wheaton, Ill. He expects that Trump's economic policies will eventually pick up the pace of hiring, and that the president could sign a tax cut for corporations as soon as later this year.
All the same, Wesbury cautioned, Trump's enthusiasm might be premature.
“It hasn’t gotten any worse, but it’s hard to say that things have improved dramatically yet,” said Wesbury, who believes that payrolls will expand by an average of 180,000 to 200,000 positions a month over the course of this year as the economy accelerates.
Other economists are more wary. Blu Putnam, the CME Group's chief economist, noted that Trump's policies on trade could increase prices and reduce opportunities for manufacturing workers who rely on imported components.
He also argued that there is little room for the economy to expand. With the unemployment rate at just 4.3 percent in May, it may be more difficult for employers to find workers even when they have openings.
If so, then the economic expansion may be slowing down — rather than just beginning, as Trump hopes. Putnam expects an average of just 113,000 new jobs a month over the year.
That could be good for ordinary households. If businesses must compete with one another to hire and retain employees, then they are more likely to give their workers a raise. Yet there is little agreement among economists about if — or when — the recovery will finally yield noticeably better wages and salaries.
“We're going to be running out of workers to hire,” said Mike Frantantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
9 Comments .. one of ..
LHO39
7/7/2017 2:48 AM EST
While I curse Trump and the horses' a$$es he rode in on I must defend these numbers. I assume we are nearing the round peak of the long Obama recovery. As such it is to be expected that rate of increase is slow and things will level off. Maybe soon. Let's see if Mr. Trump can avoid the consequent big dip and use caution to hold things steady. A yuge tax cut is not cautious.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/06/trumps-job-growth-nightmare-his-first-year-could-be-slower-than-obamas-last/?utm_term=.734ca1e7804b#comments
Considering the supply of labor reflected in the May 4.3% unemployment figure, how will Trump's immigration cut-back affect economic growth? Time will tell.
See also:
Obama’s Economic Record: An Assessment
.. this one appeals as better than many others on the topic as it mentions the great recession of 2008-9 as having a profound influence on the
Obama admin. economic performance .. so many others don't mention it, or the extreme obstructionism of the Caucus Room eatery GOP .
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129000409
Okay, wise guy, how many of those jobs that were promised actually filled and are part of BLS data for last month? Your argument is stupid,
and you are giving him credit for things that didn't contribute to actual job growth. So where did the 285,000 jobs come from?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129440923
Trump’s Job-Growth Claims at GM, Wal-Mart Don’t Stack Up
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https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131777326
The Seth Rich lie, and how the corrosion of reality should worry every American
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131590839
The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats
"Raise Taxes on Rich to Reward True Job Creators: Nick Hanauer"
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131184160
"Obama’s Legacy -- Nearly 450 Obama Accomplishments, With Citations"
By Max Ehrenfreund July 6
Economic expansion in the United States may be slowing down — rather than just beginning, as President Trump hopes. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
President Trump is touting data on the economy, telling his supporters that things are getting better for American workers. Not all professional forecasters share that enthusiasm, though, and many of them believe that this is about as good as it is going to get.
According to the average forecast among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, U.S. employers combined will add 165,000 workers to their payrolls a month this year, on net. That would be the slowest pace for hiring since 2010. Under President Barack Obama last year, the economy produced an average of 187,000 jobs a month.
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its monthly report on hiring Friday morning with figures for June, data on the labor market will be available for the first half of the year. Through May, the average pace was 162,000 new employees a month.
That is slower than not only last year, but also the year before, when the economy added 226,000 jobs a month on average. In 2015, the monthly pace averaged 250,000. Recent employment data is always subject to substantial revisions, however, and many economists believe that the agency does not adequately account for unpredictable weather in late winter in early spring. Unexpected storms or warmth can dampen the economy.
The more modest forecasts indicate that many economists believe the labor market is nearing its limits. When unemployment was widespread after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, plenty of people were available when businesses went looking for workers. The fact that many of those people now have jobs, combined with the aging population, will make hiring slower and costlier, economists say.
“The economy is doing good,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at investment firm Raymond James. “In fact, it’s probably doing as good as it can.”
Trump, though, is touting the numbers as evidence of his successful stewardship.
“Really great numbers on jobs & the economy!” the president wrote on Twitter ..
.. Monday. “Things are starting to kick in now, and we have just begun!”Really great numbers on jobs & the economy! Things are starting to kick in now, and we have just begun! Don't like steel & aluminum dumping!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 3, 2017
Economists said that given that the president has only been in office for a few months, it is unlikely that his policies have had an effect on the economy so far.
-
IMAGE: Jobs added under each president .. How healthy is Trump's economy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/jobs-report/?utm_term=.ad4f2f384fab .. and inside that one this one
[ The economy President Trump loves looks a lot like the one candidate Trump hated ..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/03/the-economy-president-trump-loves-looks-a-lot-like-the-one-candidate-trump-hated/ ]
-
Political decisions can have important consequences over the long run, but economic policy — such as choices about taxes and investments in research, education and infrastructure — rarely produce substantial short-term benefits.
“The president or whoever’s in charge of the White House and Congress don’t have that much influence about the current state of the economy,” Brown said. “It’s really more long term in nature, but typically, the president gets all the credit or all the blame.”
Trump, meanwhile, has not yet signed legislation for any of his three major economic priorities, which include restructuring the tax system, rebuilding the country's physical infrastructure and undoing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
Many businesses and households have become more confident in the state of the economy as a result of Trump's promises, said Brian Wesbury, the chief economist at First Trust Advisors in Wheaton, Ill. He expects that Trump's economic policies will eventually pick up the pace of hiring, and that the president could sign a tax cut for corporations as soon as later this year.
All the same, Wesbury cautioned, Trump's enthusiasm might be premature.
“It hasn’t gotten any worse, but it’s hard to say that things have improved dramatically yet,” said Wesbury, who believes that payrolls will expand by an average of 180,000 to 200,000 positions a month over the course of this year as the economy accelerates.
Other economists are more wary. Blu Putnam, the CME Group's chief economist, noted that Trump's policies on trade could increase prices and reduce opportunities for manufacturing workers who rely on imported components.
He also argued that there is little room for the economy to expand. With the unemployment rate at just 4.3 percent in May, it may be more difficult for employers to find workers even when they have openings.
If so, then the economic expansion may be slowing down — rather than just beginning, as Trump hopes. Putnam expects an average of just 113,000 new jobs a month over the year.
That could be good for ordinary households. If businesses must compete with one another to hire and retain employees, then they are more likely to give their workers a raise. Yet there is little agreement among economists about if — or when — the recovery will finally yield noticeably better wages and salaries.
“We're going to be running out of workers to hire,” said Mike Frantantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
9 Comments .. one of ..
LHO39
7/7/2017 2:48 AM EST
While I curse Trump and the horses' a$$es he rode in on I must defend these numbers. I assume we are nearing the round peak of the long Obama recovery. As such it is to be expected that rate of increase is slow and things will level off. Maybe soon. Let's see if Mr. Trump can avoid the consequent big dip and use caution to hold things steady. A yuge tax cut is not cautious.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/06/trumps-job-growth-nightmare-his-first-year-could-be-slower-than-obamas-last/?utm_term=.734ca1e7804b#comments
Considering the supply of labor reflected in the May 4.3% unemployment figure, how will Trump's immigration cut-back affect economic growth? Time will tell.
See also:
Obama’s Economic Record: An Assessment
.. this one appeals as better than many others on the topic as it mentions the great recession of 2008-9 as having a profound influence on the
Obama admin. economic performance .. so many others don't mention it, or the extreme obstructionism of the Caucus Room eatery GOP .
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129000409
Okay, wise guy, how many of those jobs that were promised actually filled and are part of BLS data for last month? Your argument is stupid,
and you are giving him credit for things that didn't contribute to actual job growth. So where did the 285,000 jobs come from?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129440923
Trump’s Job-Growth Claims at GM, Wal-Mart Don’t Stack Up
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128045190
Trump Wants To Defund Programs Helping Small Farmers Survive
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131777326
The Seth Rich lie, and how the corrosion of reality should worry every American
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131590839
The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats
"Raise Taxes on Rich to Reward True Job Creators: Nick Hanauer"
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=131184160
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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