Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[davidal66]

My fear is that the response will be lackluster given the nature of RBM and failure of so many treatments... hence it is possible VB111 might not pass futility. Unlikely, but a real binary-event possibility. On the other hand, I would love to be proven wrong. NOTHING, as a neurologist, would make me happier. I catalogued about 10 -11 patients(in aggregate) on Inspire/Facebook that made me doubt VB111 in rGBM. I suspect the company has a strong hunch on how VB111 is doing and are making much more educated hunches than I. They probably have better number based on their analysis than I.

Still the drug could be approved even if the overall survival isn't stellar. Let's say there is only 30 day's of overall survival benefit... say 9 months with Avastin only, but 10 months with VB111 plus avastin, but if there is a minority of long term survivors--say like 10-20 patients are doing well after 18 months but only 5 percent with Avastin only are living for 18 months or more, I could easily imagine a scenario where VB111 would be approved.

I also expect the stock price to move up in anticipation of the interim in September, perhaps to the plus 6 price per share. But, upward movement moving into September(or even downward)is not evidence of success or failure.

The company has a lot going for it outside of VB111 as well. We're moving into a hard binary event with the interim.