Sunday, August 13, 2017 4:47:04 AM
Summer 2016 depressed price of around $4.65 happened due to lack of revenue starting in 2015. Company also had a liquidity crisis and indeed Bankruptcy could have been a possibility.
The negative sentiment was hard to cure, as always, it takes multiple quarters to repair previously done damage.
The T-1 and T-2 dilution lead to a retention of around 30% of pre-dilution value, hence $4.65 depressed lows equals $1.40.
Well, company is no more under bankruptcy risk for almost one year - and on filed paper for like 8 month.
Latest debt restructuring and re-capitalization removed all doubts about it, especially since they are now fully funded and won't need to find customers handing them out money upfront.
IMO this is a very important part of the equation.
Now we can look at the pre-dilution $8 bottom, equaling to $2.40 today. And it hit! Is that price reasonable at all?
I don't think so, since it reflected a bad ER outlier with the confusion of the impact of this offering as well as the RS depression. Previously the selling insider Temasek also pushed the price down, all these headwinds are gone now.
The offering took away debt and hence moved value to equity, book wise. Not even mentioning DSM's long term positive impact regarding revenue.
As of now, we are looking at a healthy company, financials being fixed and ready to fulfill its high margin product value share and collaborations.
No more biofuel
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