Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TTPH)

[rusty8350]

Thank you for the detailed chart and commentary you posted. That was helpful and insightful. It is interesting to see this trading down when wall street just dumped a significant portion of cash into them and nothing significant has happened to justify it trading so far below the offering price at $6.50. I just doubled my position this morning after contemplating all the information I have on hand.

I'm a firm believer that this stock can provide significant returns in the long term and have been buying it whenever I can since the big drop from $50 in 2015.

By trade, I'm a medical scientist, and have been the supervisor of a hospital clinical microbiology laboratory. I feel like I have a greater understanding than most of why this particular companies main drug is so valuable. I've done quite a significant amount of due diligence into this and have mentioned many of my specific thought processes on this board over the years.

Here's a couple of the most significant:

Pfizers drug Tigecycline is known to increase likelihood of death, yet its still very widely used, because many resistant strains of bacteria leave no other options. These same resistant strains are able to be killed in vitro by eravacycline, thus potentially it could be used for MANY more indications than even cIAI or cUTI and would be the drug of choice, given it's safety shown in all trials to date. I really wouldn't be surprised to see specifically Pfizer themselves go after TTPH after FDA approval.

http://www.reuters.com/article/pfizer-drug-warning-idUSL2N0HN1G820130927

Market cap is well below what it would be worth even with just cIAI indications. With around $220 million in cash currently and 51 million shares outstanding, the measly ~$5.60 per share values the company significantly below where I feel it should even be trading right now, let alone what it could be trading at in the future.

Take a look at this recent commentary from Seeking Alpha:






Granted that is probably assuming it gets approved for other clinical indications and they get the oral dosage thing right, $700 million in annual sales would justify a market cap in the high BILLIONS. Literally would mean the company would be worth $100's of dollars per share. That's not just wishful thinking here. Eravacycline has already passed multiple phase 3 trials in IV form. The drug worked, even in the cUTI trial that caused the big drop in share price from the $50's. The IV use worked in that trial as well and was safe. It's not even an IF it gets approved anymore here, its more of a WHEN.


The next significant news as far as Eravacycline is the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) to the European Medicines Agency (EMA). They expect to have that application filed in this quarter so that could realistically mean any day now for the EMA application.

I'd anticipate the next important step will be news on completing enrollment for the phase 3 IGNITE3 study in complicated urinary tract infections (cUTI). They're expecting that news early in the fourth quarter of this year. This trial is for the IV use of eravacycline for cUTI which they already have one positive phase 3 trial on the books for this indication and expect to have the same results. They would likely finish this trial sometime in early 2018 and be able to use that data to support a future supplemental NDA filing for once-daily IV eravacycline in cUTI.

They also are still working on the oral use of Eravacycline and the CEO said they plan to provide an update to their oral eravacycline development program later this quarter. That also could mean that news is coming any day now.

The first quarter of 2018 is the anticipated New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for IV eravacycline in cIAI.

Aside from that, they will have news on the completion of multiple-ascending dose studies for their other early stage pipeline drugs TP-271 and TP-6076 sometime this year as well. And they could always go to a conference here and there and present more data from ongoing tests they're performing on Eravacycline and how it works against various drug resistant strains from around the world.


I'll admit that I'm not specifically a great "trader" and don't always time buys and sells all that well. I've found over the years that buy and hold or swing trades with a specific plan work much better for me. This is my long position. Best of luck


PS: I sorta like what the charts doing right now. Again, no chart expert by any means. But that support in the $5.50 area coincides with the accumulation from March. That level looks like a nice place to hold support. Maybe the bottom from this selloff? Lets see how she trades the next few days.