Seelos Therapeutics Inc (SEEL)

[OldtimeramI]

Are you guys serious?

But to answer in aprilov's absense, I'll throw these numbers outta my head: we're standing at 1.35$ now, around 2.5$ after filing, 7-10$ after approval, 15-25$ if imminent buyout, if sales start growing strong then obviously higher later.

A little help for the number crunchers . .Apricus Biosciences Inc (NAS:APRI) Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average): 7.74 Mil (As of Mar. 2017)

What kind of game are you guys playing? The same one?

7.74 M shares outstanding, huh? Mar 2017 the latest numbers, right?

Why not bring the real numbers forward? Why share stuff that is not up to date?

The Real shares outstanding are: As of July 28, 2017, 12,783,761 shares of the common stock, par value $.001, of the registrant were outstanding.

How many warrants? Majority of warrants are now at $1.55!

There are 6,100,000 warrants outstanding in Apricus. 4,638,000 of those at $1.55. 250,000 at $1.75. In other words, pretty much another 5 million shares outstanding if Vitaros gets approved. Guaranteed.

That puts the total shares at about 18 million. Not a huge number, actually I would say a small number. But that is not the problem.



The problem for your share price target are the scenarios that follow a possible FDA approval that would certainly be great for the company.

If Vitaros gets approved you have two scenarios:

1- The best that you can hope for. Allergan takes back rights and pays Apricus $25m. And then pays them a 20% royalty on sales.


2- Allegan declines the opt-in and Apricus pays them the 20% royalty on sales and has to find a third company to buy Vitaros. Ferring certainly would qualify as a suitor. How much on top of the 20% royalty do you think Apricus can ask Ferring to pay? I have always said no more than 10% for a total of 30% royalty on sales.

So there you have it. 20% royalties on option 1 and about 10% on option 2.

But to answer in aprilov's absense, I'll throw these numbers outta my head: we're standing at 1.35$ now, around 2.5$ after filing, 7-10$ after approval, 15-25$ if imminent buyout, if sales start growing strong then obviously higher later.

With 20 million shares outstanding by the time Vitaros gets approved ( and I believe I am being conservative with this amount as if they take any other drug forward they will continue to dilute the company to kingdom come ) and selling in the U.S. will the share price be $25? That's a 500 million market cap for this company! Even $15 would make Apricus Bio command a market cap of $300 million.

You guys come up with a 300M - 500M market cap? Not on your wildest dreams. Not anymore!

You have just said that the U.S. Erectile Dysfunction Market is 1.76 Billion and your own estimates have them selling Vitaros to take a 20% piece of that market ( which I think is pretty off the wall but lets say it happens ).

Ok. What is 20% of $1.76 B ( with the correct AD's to market it )?

It would be 352 Million in yearly sales. Wait, how many dispensers are that? If they sold for $10 - that would be 35 million dispensers sold in a year. OK. Must be a hell of an add to sell 35 Million dispensers in a year - where they could not sell 1 Million in the European Union ( in a year ). Wait, that's where the correct AD campaign comes in, right? What was I thinking.

Let's keep with this line of thought. $352 million in yearly sales. What is 20% of that? About $70 million dollars in revenues a year. What about if it's option b? That would put it at $35 million in royalties a year. Not bad.

Except. Command a 500 million market cap for a company that is obtaining 70 million in revenues per year? That would potentially net $50 million of that?

And it's not all profit. What about their salaries? I say as soon as Vitaros get's approved they go back to spending $4 m - $5 m per quarter ( at least ) as they were previously. That means they only NET $50 m per year. Divide that by 20 million outstanding and the best case scenario has them earning $2.50 per share.

What if it's option 2? Well it gets a little more bleak for them here as they would only be earning $35m in royalties per year and once you subtract the $20 million in expenses, well that leaves them with $15 million per year profit. Which comes out to .75 per share. Would that command a 300 million dollar market cap?

I guess this is where all those other wonderful drugs come in, right? Those who command the extra value for Apricus. Well, let's just say that if they start running any trials for any of those drugs - you can kiss the amounts above good bye. Because either they spend the cash flow in trials or they just keep diluting the living hell out of the company to fund those trials. Either way would not make the market cap go up in the short run.

By the way. How many years from now to a potential 352 million in sales from Vitaros in the United States alone? No way in hell that the shares outstanding remain at 20 million if that time ever comes ( not unless another reverse split ).

Now what happens is Vitaros is really a Niche treatment, as one of the doctors that supported Vitaros called it himself? Dr. Irwin Goldstein.

What if it only is able to take 10% of the United States market? It's still a big number. But then it would be $176 million in yearly sales and option 1 would make them $35m in royalties and option 2 would make them $17m. Option 2 isn't enough to pay for any trials on the other products in Apricus' pipeline. And option 1 would barely do it.

What if it only is able to take 5%? You get the idea.

And it certainly has to sell 5% before it gets to 10% or 20%.

Sorry but I have been an Apricus Shareholder ( yeah, I bought back shares in Apricus just above a dollar a few weeks ago ) for a very very long time. I just don't buy the story anymore. I buy the stock to trade it. That is it. And yeah, I just sold my position a few days ago. That was a nice 30%+ gain. And I will do it again!