Thursday, July 27, 2017 9:09:00 PM
Here are the only potential outcomes. It's really quite simple if you ask me.
1) Reverse Split approved. Delcath taps into financing it needs, and gets through 2017. The stock price will probably take a temporary dive with renewed short interest, and depending on how long it takes for the trial to complete, there may be another offering to raise additional cash. But, since the FDA has an SPA for P3, if the data comes back positive the stock price should rebound instantly as there will not be a lengthy wait and debate about whether approval will happen.
2) Reverse Split not approved. Delcath secures money by taking out new secured debt with Chemosat as collateral.
3) Reverse Split not approved. Delcath sells some or all of its assets to the highest bidder.
4) Reverse Split not approved. Delcath files for bankruptcy. The Creditors claim the Chemosat system is worth less than $15M they are owed, and offer to exchange their debt for 100% of new equity. They then infuse the company with new cash to get it through FDA trials, with the hopes of selling for a massive profit after FDA approval.
In this last instance, however, the company can also pursue alternative options during the exclusivity phase, which would most likely include a market test of the asset value. If someone comes to the table and offers $25M for the Chemosat system (a European company, perhaps), the company would be sold and the $15M would repay the Creditors with $10M going to the shareholders -- for about .02/share.
The Creditors, realizing they are about to get the shaft, counter with an offer to take only say 75% of the new equity at a $25M valuation. And negotiations ensue.
Bankruptcy is not scary here because the value of the assets are worth substantially more than what the company owes. And the Creditors did not lend Delcath money with the hope of only getting their money back -- not to mention that all those shares they converted into equity would be worthless too if a liquidation were to take place.
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