Value of Cytrx I am no expert, but we can easily throw some numbers together and get a picture. Keep in mind Aldox carries 7 year exclusive in US and 10 in EU, in the hands of a big pharma they can promote and market that pretty quickly and secure market shares in few years. Based on internet information, original Doxorubicin market is north of 1 billion. You're looking at several years of annual revenue north of 1 billion just on the STS indication. Aldox could potentially net more than 8 billion alone in 7 years of sales. But of course suitor won't pay 8 billion because they obviously want to make profit right? So that's where negotiation comes in. That's why the potential of Aldox is 8 billion or more due to the 7 year exclusive depends on how long a period you're looking at whether it's 7 year or 20 years. Will couple billion investment today with 8 billion return in 7 years do ok for suitors? I can't really say since it's a deal between Cytrx and the buyer. But, just so you know what Aldox is worth in 7 years of time.
So if you're a suitor and you're looking at 10 years return with Aldox that number can be blown up pretty big. Suitors obviously are looking at Aldox as investment. What is Aldox worth in 10 years and how much I am willing to put down today to secure Aldox. So say 10 billion is the minimal potential in a 10 year investment what percentage is fair to Cytrx? 2 billion, 5 billion? Not to mention Aldox is not likely to go away in the next 20 years so the value of Aldox is beyond 10 billion looking at a much longer period of time.
Now, we haven't covered combination therapies yet, or other indications that Aldox might get approved for.
