#1/ Novavax: Down, but not out/ $NVAX
Heading into the late-stage readout for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate in elderly adults, Novavax was a Wall Street darling. The vaccine's strong mid-stage results, after all, seemed to indicate that the company was close to bringing a multibillion-dollar product to market.
Then disaster struck. The vaccine badly missed its primary endpoint in this all-important trial, and Novavax's share price imploded as a result.
According to the company, the vaccine's dismal late-stage results in elder adults can most likely be attributed to an extremely mild RSV season during the course of the trial. As a result, management quickly decided to launch yet another mid-stage trial assessing different dosing regimens of the vaccine in older adults. And with this trial nearing a top-line readout of its own, the fate of the vaccine's elderly adult indication could be known sooner rather than later.
Long story short, if Novavax is proved correct in that the underlying problem was a mild RSV season and not a lack of potency in the vaccine itself, this stock could rebound in a big way. This vaccine's peak sales were pegged to reach upwards of $2 billion, after all, if it's approved for both maternal immunization and in older adults as a preventative treatment for RSV. That sales projection dwarfs Novavax's present market cap of $418 million.
