I think the reason for the fall in stock price is simple. The company PR is focused on the big picture of finding 'the cure' for AD and the MO of Bryostatin does suggest promise in that regard. This is what investors were hopping for from the Phase 2 data and they were naturally disappointed.
From the scientific perspective, the study does prove important aspects of Bryostatin MO in regrowing synapses and in crossover of results observed in mice to humans. This is a huge step in finding a cure and perhaps other studies of longer duration or in combination with other drugs could produce the actual miracle cure everyone is hopping for. This is why the company presented the results as positive. The efficiency results of the current study however were not dramatic enough to support a believable big picture 'cure' narrative, not at least to the average investor. To these investors who were expecting a simple 'cure', the hypothetical implications of the study are all way to much pie in the sky and in fact presenting the modest efficiency results as a potential cure comes across as spin.
On the other hand the study results do clearly demonstrate that Bryostatin at 20 m is safe and does help very advanced AD patients improve cognition and quality of life in a way that is useful to both patients a care givers. If based on those results a Phase 3 is likely to be approved and a Bryostatin can be brought to market in the near future as a useful drug for advanced AD patients, this would make NTRP into a multi-billion dollar company. This narrative, if true, is realistic and supported by Phase 2 data and I believe would justify a current stock price of 5X to 10x of what it is now.
Yes, in the future, studies may show that Bryostatin is actually a pathway to a real cure, but those future studies would be a lot more likely to happen if the company would communicate a clear and believable narrative of how Bryostatin can be brought to market for even advanced AD patients based on current Phase 2 data on efficiency.
