For the period 1/1/2000-8/14/2003 which is 43.5 months, the average monthly sum of absolute daily NDX % changes is 49.11 which I rounded to 50% a month. However, for the period 7/1/2003-8/14/2003 which 1.5 months, this sum is only 36.5% or 24.3% a month which is roughly half of 50%. Given this, the expected returns from trading during the past 1.5 months might be proportionately lower due to this lower volatility.
As far my lack of trades for one week, a few points. First, that 2% daily NDX change (actually 2.36% a day for 2000-2003) is not uniformly distributed so gains are larger when NDX turns from very overbought or very oversold. Second, the correct trade was long entry late last week and early this week and less so now. Third, after I exited longs late last week due to lack of clarity on my system signals I spent a few days reevaluating my system and developed substantial improvements I mentioned earlier.
To reiterate, there is no need to trade every day. It is sufficient to trade when either the win probability or the potential gain is the highest. So, say, 10 trades a month timed for the most suitable setups (i.e., most reliable signals) will likely provide the great majority of theoretical gains possible in a given month.
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