Tuesday, July 04, 2017 8:55:22 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/30 2017 EOD
Conflicts exist between the conventional TA, which has several indications of the onset of weakening, and my unconventional stuff, which have more indications that weakness is not yet here. I can reduce the conventional TA's negativism by discounting the closing trade (it was very unusual in size and percent below preceding trades and today was EOM and EOQ, likely related),
OTOH, leaks are not unusual on this stock and that close may have been someone with early knowledge of the filing.
For now, as I usually do, I'll go with my unconventional stuff and say worst case seem sideways and most likely is continued appreciation, although with difficulty maybe as we are trying to get through the $0.70-$0.72 resistance.
I will remind that I think the ATM is in use and the higher the price gets the more selling we should expect.
Today, after market close, there was a 14-A Notice of Annual Meeting with some disturbing, to me, items included.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:9K $0.69/$0.80.
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 1,267 buy for $0.70 & $0.69 x 100, $0.70 x 13, x 629. B/a just after open was 6.2K:5.1K $0.66/$0.70. Then came 9:34's 100 $0.6999, 9:36's b/a 6.2K:5.1K $0.6660/$0.70, 9:39's 953 $0.70, 9:40's b/a 100:5.1K $0.6695/$0.70, 9:48's 100:5.3K $0.67/$0.70, 9:52's 100 $0.69, 10:00's 1K $0.6695, 10:02's b/a 100:5.5K $0.6695/$0.70, 10:06's 100 $0.70. The period ended on 10:07's 1.4K $0.6695.
10:08-10:54 during the initial two no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:09 of 6.2K:5K $0.6660/$0.70. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.70 on 10:10's 100 $0.6710. B/a at 10:18 was 100:5K $0.6710/$0.70, 10:35 1.3K:4.9K $0.6901/$0.70, 10:47 1.5K:4.9K $0.6952/$0.70. The period ended on 10:54's 1.3K $0.70.
10:55-11:36 during the initial 9 no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:02 of 100:4.6K $0.6952/$0.70. Trade, before beginning an extremely low/no-volume climb, began mostly low/medium-volume, through 11:19, $0.7100/54 after 11:05's 4.7K $0.70 (4.6K)/$0.7165 (100). B/a at 11:15 was 1K:100 $0.7102/55. After 11:19 the climb began on extremely low/no-volume. Volume was interrupted by 11:33's 14.1K $0.7101 (14K blk)/55 (100). The period ended when 11:36's 2.2K hit $0.7190/30 (2K)/$0.72 (100).
11:37-13:41 during the initial fourteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:36 of 2.3K:4.6K $0.7101/$0.72 and 11:50 1.3K:400 $0.7103/50. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7001/$0.71 on 11:51's 12.8K $0.7101 (1.9K)/25/01 (1.6K)/00 (9.2K). B/a at 12:03 was 1K:16.4K $0.7001/$0.71, 12:17 100:15.4K $0.7006/$0.71, 12:32 1.7K:15.4K $0.7002/$0.71 (bids jiggling $0.70 2.8K), 12:47 100:15.4K $0.7093/$0.71, 13:02 500:16K $0.7055/$0.71, 13:17 900:17K $0.7057/$0.71, 13:32 600:15.7K $0.7060/$0.71. The period ended on 13:41's 790 $0.71.
13:42-15:25 during the initial nine no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:49 of 1.3K:15.4K $0.7001/$0.71. Trade began a delayed step up after doing a few trades of 100 shares at $0.7001 13:51-13:59. B/a at 14:02 was 1.8K:300 $0.70/1. The step up came on 14:08's 16.6K $0.7001 (16K)/00/50. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7103/50. B/a at 14:19 was 100:700 $0.7001/$0.7150, 14:32 100:600 $0.7001/$0.7150, 14:47 100:600 $0.7001/$0.7150, 15:02 1.3K:2.6K $0.7103/50, 15:17 1.1K:2.5K $0.7110/50. The period ended on 15:25's 100 $0.7150.
15:26-15:53 during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:32 of 100:2.4K $0.7121/50. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7075/$0.71 on 15:37's 1.2K $0.7123 (800)/24/34/18/00. B/a at 15:47 was 1.9K:24.8K $0.7011/$0.71 (bids rising). The period ended on 15:53's 1.3K $0.71.
15:54-16:00, after one no-trades minute and before a very large closing drop, began extremely low/no-volume $0.71 flat on 15:55's 10.5K $0.7066/$0.71 (10k blk & 400). The period and day ended on 15:59's 200 $0.71 and 16:00's 22.9K block trade for $0.68, -4.23% from the prior trades!.
There was one AH Form T $0.70 x 100 buy.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 82,863, 66.54% of day's volume, with a $0.7002 VWAP. Excluding the closing trade, there were 7 larger trades totaling 59,963, 48.15% of day's volume, with a $0.7079 VWAP. For the volume, the counts seem reasonable. Both percentages of day's volume are to the high side though, especially with that closing trade included.
Note the effect on the VWAP of that closing trade. It would have a similar effect on the day's VWAP. If we back that trade out the day's VWAP would be $0.7100 instead of the $0.7021 we actually got.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The high finally got above $0.71 to ... TA-DA! $0.72. So that bug-a-boo $0.70-$0.72 resistance is still holding in there. Would it if the ATM weren't in use? We don't know - we don't even know for sure the ATM is in use. We do know that from low levels we ran up into this area and stalled.
On my minimal chart, the trade range was about 80% above the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance (upper line), ~$0.68, and the close of $0.68 was about right on it. As mentioned above, if we could discount that closing block our close would have been $0.71, in the old $0.70-$0.72 resistance range. A second close below the descending channel's falling resistance would confirm another break into the descending channel. If one believes that the real indicative closing price was $0.71, the first break below that channel's upper line hasn't occurred yet. IOW, trade is still above the descending channel.
The fast EMA, $0.6818, took a little dip, interrupting the rise begun three days ago and is now about 1/3rd penny above the rising slow EMA, $0.6788.
Yesterday, commenting on the flat range we've been seeing, I said { ... suggests difficulty breaking above the $0.70-$0.72 range. If the ATM is in use around this level the break above will likely be a long time in coming. }. With today's high at $0.72, that thought seems still germane.
On my one-year chart, today's trading range was pretty much above, with only a small intra-day penetration below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, the three shortest SMAs - the falling 10-day's $0.6748 (was $0.6758), the falling 50-day SMA's $0.6811 (was $0.6827) and the rising 20-day's $0.6874 (was $0.6859).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator but ADX-related, which was essentially neutral. Only RSI and full stochastic were above neutral while the others were below neutral. Nothing was oversold or overbought.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution (below neutral), RSI (about at neutral) and momentum (just below neutral). Improvement occurred in MFI (below neutral and untrusted by me), Williams %R (just above neutral), full stochastic (above neutral), and ADX-related (essentially at a neutral stance).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6338 and $0.7305 ($0.6204 and $0.7585 yesterday), continued to converge with the mid-point continuing to decline.
All in, things are less positive than yesterday, which had begun showing early signs of weakening, when I said { In spite of that, the preponderance of the conventional TA items say there's more upside and if the price/volume alert notifications that traders use catch this it could move quite a bit further.
For now, I have to read all the above as near-term more improvement is most likely but I am concerned about that $0.70-$0.72 area causing a reversal, or at least a pause. }
Increased weakening is seen in both the intra-day breakdown's buy percentages and the conventional TA's oscillators.
Regardless of all that, with low volume the easy manipulation of the trade should continue, for ATM use, and there's little likelihood of a reversal to make a leg down yet ... unless the items in the 14-A announcement spooks the market (do we have a real market any more to spook?). However, for the leg up to continue there must be somebody to sell to and we have no way to know who or how many are out there taking the shares.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved ... Well,short percentage didn't. Buy percentage rose a bit into an area suggesting some near-term upside is most likely. Short percentage is in an extremely low area for the second consecutive day. As with yesterday, could be a sign of ATM use and/or an effect of the larger trades' percentage of day's volume. Regardless, if shorters are are not hitting the stock at these levels there's a reason and it is not fear. It is strategic, likely covering to lock in profits and prepare for what's coming so they can hammer it again.
The spread contracted for the second consecutive day. It is still wide enough to suggest near-term movement is most likely.
The VWAP switched again, this time to improving from deteriorating, moving us from three positives in six days to four positives in seven days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved to 12 negatives and 12 positives after holding steady at 13 and 11, respectively, for three consecutive days. Change since 05/26 is $0.0620, 9.69%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4245%, 0.3443%, 0.3592%, 0.2367%, 0.1251%, 0.1050%, 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, and 0.2379%.
All in, yesterday I said { I would lean toward a sideways consolidation at best. More likely, I think, is the beginning of some weakening. } Whether that was right can be argued both ways - the official close says we were down but if we discount it, as I think is reasonable to do, the VWAP and higher trading range say we strengthened. Volume argues against that though.
I think yesterday's prognosis was just a fail because I believe we moved up a bit.
Today the buy percentage holds sway, supported by the spread suggesting movement and the VWAP rising, and makes me say near-term strengthening is most likely.
Bill
Conflicts exist between the conventional TA, which has several indications of the onset of weakening, and my unconventional stuff, which have more indications that weakness is not yet here. I can reduce the conventional TA's negativism by discounting the closing trade (it was very unusual in size and percent below preceding trades and today was EOM and EOQ, likely related),
OTOH, leaks are not unusual on this stock and that close may have been someone with early knowledge of the filing.
For now, as I usually do, I'll go with my unconventional stuff and say worst case seem sideways and most likely is continued appreciation, although with difficulty maybe as we are trying to get through the $0.70-$0.72 resistance.
I will remind that I think the ATM is in use and the higher the price gets the more selling we should expect.
Today, after market close, there was a 14-A Notice of Annual Meeting with some disturbing, to me, items included.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:9K $0.69/$0.80.
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 1,267 buy for $0.70 & $0.69 x 100, $0.70 x 13, x 629. B/a just after open was 6.2K:5.1K $0.66/$0.70. Then came 9:34's 100 $0.6999, 9:36's b/a 6.2K:5.1K $0.6660/$0.70, 9:39's 953 $0.70, 9:40's b/a 100:5.1K $0.6695/$0.70, 9:48's 100:5.3K $0.67/$0.70, 9:52's 100 $0.69, 10:00's 1K $0.6695, 10:02's b/a 100:5.5K $0.6695/$0.70, 10:06's 100 $0.70. The period ended on 10:07's 1.4K $0.6695.
10:08-10:54 during the initial two no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:09 of 6.2K:5K $0.6660/$0.70. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.70 on 10:10's 100 $0.6710. B/a at 10:18 was 100:5K $0.6710/$0.70, 10:35 1.3K:4.9K $0.6901/$0.70, 10:47 1.5K:4.9K $0.6952/$0.70. The period ended on 10:54's 1.3K $0.70.
10:55-11:36 during the initial 9 no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:02 of 100:4.6K $0.6952/$0.70. Trade, before beginning an extremely low/no-volume climb, began mostly low/medium-volume, through 11:19, $0.7100/54 after 11:05's 4.7K $0.70 (4.6K)/$0.7165 (100). B/a at 11:15 was 1K:100 $0.7102/55. After 11:19 the climb began on extremely low/no-volume. Volume was interrupted by 11:33's 14.1K $0.7101 (14K blk)/55 (100). The period ended when 11:36's 2.2K hit $0.7190/30 (2K)/$0.72 (100).
11:37-13:41 during the initial fourteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:36 of 2.3K:4.6K $0.7101/$0.72 and 11:50 1.3K:400 $0.7103/50. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7001/$0.71 on 11:51's 12.8K $0.7101 (1.9K)/25/01 (1.6K)/00 (9.2K). B/a at 12:03 was 1K:16.4K $0.7001/$0.71, 12:17 100:15.4K $0.7006/$0.71, 12:32 1.7K:15.4K $0.7002/$0.71 (bids jiggling $0.70 2.8K), 12:47 100:15.4K $0.7093/$0.71, 13:02 500:16K $0.7055/$0.71, 13:17 900:17K $0.7057/$0.71, 13:32 600:15.7K $0.7060/$0.71. The period ended on 13:41's 790 $0.71.
13:42-15:25 during the initial nine no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:49 of 1.3K:15.4K $0.7001/$0.71. Trade began a delayed step up after doing a few trades of 100 shares at $0.7001 13:51-13:59. B/a at 14:02 was 1.8K:300 $0.70/1. The step up came on 14:08's 16.6K $0.7001 (16K)/00/50. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7103/50. B/a at 14:19 was 100:700 $0.7001/$0.7150, 14:32 100:600 $0.7001/$0.7150, 14:47 100:600 $0.7001/$0.7150, 15:02 1.3K:2.6K $0.7103/50, 15:17 1.1K:2.5K $0.7110/50. The period ended on 15:25's 100 $0.7150.
15:26-15:53 during the initial eleven no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:32 of 100:2.4K $0.7121/50. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7075/$0.71 on 15:37's 1.2K $0.7123 (800)/24/34/18/00. B/a at 15:47 was 1.9K:24.8K $0.7011/$0.71 (bids rising). The period ended on 15:53's 1.3K $0.71.
15:54-16:00, after one no-trades minute and before a very large closing drop, began extremely low/no-volume $0.71 flat on 15:55's 10.5K $0.7066/$0.71 (10k blk & 400). The period and day ended on 15:59's 200 $0.71 and 16:00's 22.9K block trade for $0.68, -4.23% from the prior trades!.
There was one AH Form T $0.70 x 100 buy.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 82,863, 66.54% of day's volume, with a $0.7002 VWAP. Excluding the closing trade, there were 7 larger trades totaling 59,963, 48.15% of day's volume, with a $0.7079 VWAP. For the volume, the counts seem reasonable. Both percentages of day's volume are to the high side though, especially with that closing trade included.
Note the effect on the VWAP of that closing trade. It would have a similar effect on the day's VWAP. If we back that trade out the day's VWAP would be $0.7100 instead of the $0.7021 we actually got.
It looks like the buy percentage rose just long enough to get the price range up for the ATM and then began to fall fairly steadily, a natural result as the shares were sold into the market would be my guess. Note the relatively low correlation in the buy percentage and VWAP movements after that early period.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:07 5649 $0.6695 $0.7000 $3,879.09 $0.6867 4.54% 57.67%
10:54 1500 $0.6710 $0.7000 $1,047.10 $0.6981 1.20% 64.15%
11:36 35423 $0.7000 $0.7200 $25,171.68 $0.7106 28.45% 53.04% Incl 11:13 $0.7150 5,900 11:33 $0.7101 13,963
13:41 21990 $0.7000 $0.7125 $15,594.90 $0.7092 17.66% 59.87% Incl 11:51 $0.7100 9,100 12:05 5,000
15:25 22309 $0.7001 $0.7150 $15,692.60 $0.7034 17.91% 48.61% Incl 14:08 $0.7001 6,400 9,600
15:53 2927 $0.7072 $0.7134 $2,079.74 $0.7105 2.35% 48.94%
15:59 11000 $0.7066 $0.7100 $7,809.66 $0.7100 8.83% 54.47% Incl 15:55 $0.7100 10,000
16:00 22900 $0.6800 $0.6800 $15,572.00 $0.6800 18.39% 44.45% Incl 16:00 $0.6800 22,900
16:35 100 $0.7000 $0.7000 $70.00 $0.7000 0.08% 44.49%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The close and the volume were the spoilers today. However, sans that 22.9K closing trade we would have a mixed bag. The volume would be even worse, down -29.56% instead of -13.68%. OTOH, the close would have been 15:59's last trade, $0.71, which would make that movement +1.43% instead of -2.86%. Those two together would make a reasonably positive day even with lower volume because low volume often comes as a result of indecision which resolves into a move after a short time.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% 2.95% 1.41% -2.86% -13.68%
Prior 0.00% 0.05% 0.00% 3.55% 67.52%
The high finally got above $0.71 to ... TA-DA! $0.72. So that bug-a-boo $0.70-$0.72 resistance is still holding in there. Would it if the ATM weren't in use? We don't know - we don't even know for sure the ATM is in use. We do know that from low levels we ran up into this area and stalled.
On my minimal chart, the trade range was about 80% above the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance (upper line), ~$0.68, and the close of $0.68 was about right on it. As mentioned above, if we could discount that closing block our close would have been $0.71, in the old $0.70-$0.72 resistance range. A second close below the descending channel's falling resistance would confirm another break into the descending channel. If one believes that the real indicative closing price was $0.71, the first break below that channel's upper line hasn't occurred yet. IOW, trade is still above the descending channel.
The fast EMA, $0.6818, took a little dip, interrupting the rise begun three days ago and is now about 1/3rd penny above the rising slow EMA, $0.6788.
Yesterday, commenting on the flat range we've been seeing, I said { ... suggests difficulty breaking above the $0.70-$0.72 range. If the ATM is in use around this level the break above will likely be a long time in coming. }. With today's high at $0.72, that thought seems still germane.
On my one-year chart, today's trading range was pretty much above, with only a small intra-day penetration below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, the three shortest SMAs - the falling 10-day's $0.6748 (was $0.6758), the falling 50-day SMA's $0.6811 (was $0.6827) and the rising 20-day's $0.6874 (was $0.6859).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator but ADX-related, which was essentially neutral. Only RSI and full stochastic were above neutral while the others were below neutral. Nothing was oversold or overbought.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution (below neutral), RSI (about at neutral) and momentum (just below neutral). Improvement occurred in MFI (below neutral and untrusted by me), Williams %R (just above neutral), full stochastic (above neutral), and ADX-related (essentially at a neutral stance).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6338 and $0.7305 ($0.6204 and $0.7585 yesterday), continued to converge with the mid-point continuing to decline.
All in, things are less positive than yesterday, which had begun showing early signs of weakening, when I said { In spite of that, the preponderance of the conventional TA items say there's more upside and if the price/volume alert notifications that traders use catch this it could move quite a bit further.
For now, I have to read all the above as near-term more improvement is most likely but I am concerned about that $0.70-$0.72 area causing a reversal, or at least a pause. }
Increased weakening is seen in both the intra-day breakdown's buy percentages and the conventional TA's oscillators.
Regardless of all that, with low volume the easy manipulation of the trade should continue, for ATM use, and there's little likelihood of a reversal to make a leg down yet ... unless the items in the 14-A announcement spooks the market (do we have a real market any more to spook?). However, for the leg up to continue there must be somebody to sell to and we have no way to know who or how many are out there taking the shares.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved ... Well,short percentage didn't. Buy percentage rose a bit into an area suggesting some near-term upside is most likely. Short percentage is in an extremely low area for the second consecutive day. As with yesterday, could be a sign of ATM use and/or an effect of the larger trades' percentage of day's volume. Regardless, if shorters are are not hitting the stock at these levels there's a reason and it is not fear. It is strategic, likely covering to lock in profits and prepare for what's coming so they can hammer it again.
The spread contracted for the second consecutive day. It is still wide enough to suggest near-term movement is most likely.
The VWAP switched again, this time to improving from deteriorating, moving us from three positives in six days to four positives in seven days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved to 12 negatives and 12 positives after holding steady at 13 and 11, respectively, for three consecutive days. Change since 05/26 is $0.0620, 9.69%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4245%, 0.3443%, 0.3592%, 0.2367%, 0.1251%, 0.1050%, 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, and 0.2379%.
All in, yesterday I said { I would lean toward a sideways consolidation at best. More likely, I think, is the beginning of some weakening. } Whether that was right can be argued both ways - the official close says we were down but if we discount it, as I think is reasonable to do, the VWAP and higher trading range say we strengthened. Volume argues against that though.
I think yesterday's prognosis was just a fail because I believe we moved up a bit.
Today the buy percentage holds sway, supported by the spread suggesting movement and the VWAP rising, and makes me say near-term strengthening is most likely.
Bill
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