Saturday, July 01, 2017 3:18:06 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/26 2017 EOD
Conventional TA has mixed signals, some suggesting near-term continued down-leg as most likely while some of the oscillators are suggesting a reversal may be in the cards. My unconventional stuff is all quite negative.
One potential positive is that we are in a range that before had a reversal and the only catalyst I recall was the apparent continued use of the ATM, in my best judgement. Since that is still occurring, AFAICT, we can't rule out another reversal here.
Having said that, I'm thinking near-term continuing weakening is most likely.
Today opened high and began a very low-volume sag lower from about 10:00 onward, finally setting the day's low at 11:13. The typical very low-volume recovery to just slightly below the prior higher range was followed by an extremely low/no-volume flattish trading, with only minor weakening, into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:500 $0.6517/$0.74.
09:30-10:06 opened the day with a 441 sell for $0.6760 & $0.66 x 3.2K, $0.6601 x 600, $0.6759 x 500 $0.66 x 100, $0.668 x 450. B/a just after open was 800:103 $0.66/$0.6760. Then came 9:31's 500 $0.66, 9:32's 200 $0.66, 9:34's b/a 100:103 $0.6517/$0.6760, 9:35's 500 $0.6527/8/7/$0.6680 (100), 9:38's 100 $0.6740, 9:41's 6.3K $0.6600 (4.2K)/01 (800)/00 (1.3K), 9:42's 400 $0.66, 9:45's 1.1K $0.6600/99 (900)/00, 9:46's 500 $0.6740/$0.6600/1, 9:48's b/a 100:103 $0.66/$0.6760, 9:59's 1K $0.6683, 10:00's 700 $0.6683/06 (400)/5, 10:01's 100 $0.6606, 10:02's 100 $0.6607, 10:02's b/a 200:100 $0.6606/$0.67 (bids rising), 10:03's 700 $0.6611 (500)/12, 10:04's 200 $0.6615/8, 10:05's 200 $0.6623/90. The period ended on 10:06's 1.3K $0.6625/6 (400)/7 (300)/8 (300).
10:07-10:42 began very low/no-volume wide $0.6518/$0.67 on 10:07's 1.4K $0.6629 (1.1K)/8/$0.6518. B/a at 10:11 as 200:100 $0.6517/$0.67, 10:19 500:100 $0.6518/$0.67, 10:32 200:100 $0.6518/$0.67. The period ended on 10:42's 100 $0.6615.
10:43-11:13 began a very low/medium-volume collapse after 10:45's 75.6K $0.6530 (44.6K incl 35.9K blk)/$0.6517/$0.6516/$0.65 (32.1K incl 10.4K blk). 10:51's 5.5K did 5.5K $0.65 (200)/$0.64 (5.3K). B/a at 10:54 was 1K:500 $0.64/7. 10:57's 9.6K did $0.64 (300)/$0.63 (9.2K). B/a at 11:05 was 121:10 $0.6409/$0.6636 (offers backed by presented 500 $0.67). The period ended on 11:13's 2.7K $0.6305 (1K)/2/00/$0.6256/1/0.
11:14-12:54 began an extremely low/no-volume climb, through 11:31, on 11:14's 100 $0.6250. B/a at 11:21 was 10.1K:600 $0.6250/$0.6399. 11:31's 100 $0.6691 kicked off extremelylow/no-volume $0.6501/$0.67, with slowly narrowing range. B/a at 11:46 was 100:595 $0.65/7, 12:04 300:10 $0.6500/50 (offers backed by presented 100 $0.6679 and 321 $0.6699), 12:20 200:100 $0.6404/$0.66, 12:30 200:200 $0.6404/$0.66, 12:48 100:200 $0.6404/$0.66. The period ended on 12:54's 100 $0.6594.
12:55-14:06 began extremelylow/no-volume $0.6414/$0.6599, with very slowly rising lows, on 12:55's 650 $0.6502 (450)/00. B/a at 13:00 was 300:900 $0.6404/$0.6599, 13:17 300:900 $0.6404/$0.6599, 13:32 200:10 $0.6406/$0.6636 (offers backed by presented 900 $0.6656), 13:44 300:200 $0.6406/$0.66, 14:02 300:300 $0.6406/$0.66. The period ended on 14:06's 1.1K $0.66.
14:07-16:00 began began with a short bump up on 14:07's 200 $0.6656 followed by a extremely low/no-volume decline and bounce back up. B/a at 14:09 was 200:700 $0.6406/$0.6656. 14:13's 200 hit $0.655 and 14:18's 155 did $0.643. B/a at 14:18 was 100:300 $0.6404/$0.66. 14:34's 111 did $0.653. B/a at 14:34 was 200:600 $0.6404/$0.66. 14:41's 200 did $0.6578/97. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.6401/$0.66 (low eventually became $0.64). B/a at 14:45 was 700:700 $0.64/6, 15:02 200:600 $0.64/6, 15:17 100:421 $0.6501/$0.6699, 15:32 1K:162 $0.64/6, 15:46 452:362 $0.64/6. The period and day end on 15:59's 956 $0.6590 (600)/$0.64 (252)/$0.6375 (100)/$0.63 (2), making the last 15:59 non-odd-lot trade of 100 $0.6375 the official close because the 16:00 closing trade was on odd-lot 15 shares for $0.6437.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 100,308, 53.09% of day's volume, with a $0.6521 VWAP. The count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is high, thanks to a few "larger larger trades". The VWAP is almost the same as the day's $0.6522.
As before, the low buy percentage and suspected intra-day price manipulation makes me think the ATM was in use.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
A lower low, high and close on higher volume seems to confirm "fake consolidation" and suggests the down leg is still in progress and gaining strength. One thing that argues against that is seen on the minimal chart - last time down at this level a leg up magically appeared, presumably as a result of Cowan & Co. successfully moving the market to support ATM sales. There was probably some PR involved with part of it though. Sans a PR I don't know we could count on the re-appearance of that.
On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { the high pushed above the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance and was rejected, resulting in a close down near the mid-range of the channel, even using the 15:59 closing price. } Today the range and close were below the top support line confirming a break below support back into the descending channel. The rising volume would suggest gaining strength in the move down, but as mentioned above a leg up magically appeared last time we were in this range. I wouldn't rule out a re-occurrence of that behavior.
This may be supported by the fact that the low bottomed almost right on the experimental 13-period Bollinger band lower limit, $0.6237, at 11:13 and immediately began a climb back up to go flattish just a bit below the early higher range, almost as if planned. DOH! For that reason I'll not express worry about "pushing" the lower limit - I expect it won't be allowed to continue down at this range.
Th fast EMA, $0.6514, continued falling and is well below the slow EMA, $0.6762. It's been below since 4/19. At some point it's got to reverse, right? Right now no sign of that happening though.
On my one-year chart, today's trade was again completely below the falling 10-day's $0.6917 (was $0.7001) and the falling 50-day SMA's $0.6891 (was $0.6920) and today topped barely below, and traded completely below, the still-falling 20-day SMA at $0.6761.
It appears the 20-day SMA will cross below the 50-day in just a day or two.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator I watch. Everything but MFI (untrusted by me) was below neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic were showing oversold.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum, Williams %R (still oversold) and full stochastic (exited oversold, barely). Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6237 and $0.7629 ($0.6323 and $0.7593 yesterday), continued diverging with yesterday's slightly rising mid-point flipping to slightly declining.
All in, improvement in some of the oscillators suggest a turn might be coming while the rising volume on lower high, low and close suggest the opposite. Bearishness is also suggested by the falling SMAs, with the 20 below the 50 and the 10 about to cross below. If we could count on what happened last time we were in this range (mentioned above) we would swing to bullish. I don't think it's safe to rely on that though. We could also look at the bounce off the lower Bollinger limit early in the day a conclude that might be bullish. I guess the tie-breaker will be the intra-day breakdown above.
With the buy percentages for all the periods being so low, I think the most likely near-term movement is further weakening.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and both are well below the range needed to suggest any near-term upside.
The spread widened and moved further into a range suggesting near-term movement is likely, my guess being moving lower based on the percentages for short sales and buy.
The VWAP continued weakening, leaving us with only two positives in nine days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady at 14 negatives and 10 positives for the second consecutive day. Change since 05/22 is $0.0140, 2.20%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1251%, 0.1050%, 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, and 0.6348%.
All in, everything here suggests near-term continued weakening.
Bill
Conventional TA has mixed signals, some suggesting near-term continued down-leg as most likely while some of the oscillators are suggesting a reversal may be in the cards. My unconventional stuff is all quite negative.
One potential positive is that we are in a range that before had a reversal and the only catalyst I recall was the apparent continued use of the ATM, in my best judgement. Since that is still occurring, AFAICT, we can't rule out another reversal here.
Having said that, I'm thinking near-term continuing weakening is most likely.
Today opened high and began a very low-volume sag lower from about 10:00 onward, finally setting the day's low at 11:13. The typical very low-volume recovery to just slightly below the prior higher range was followed by an extremely low/no-volume flattish trading, with only minor weakening, into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:500 $0.6517/$0.74.
09:30-10:06 opened the day with a 441 sell for $0.6760 & $0.66 x 3.2K, $0.6601 x 600, $0.6759 x 500 $0.66 x 100, $0.668 x 450. B/a just after open was 800:103 $0.66/$0.6760. Then came 9:31's 500 $0.66, 9:32's 200 $0.66, 9:34's b/a 100:103 $0.6517/$0.6760, 9:35's 500 $0.6527/8/7/$0.6680 (100), 9:38's 100 $0.6740, 9:41's 6.3K $0.6600 (4.2K)/01 (800)/00 (1.3K), 9:42's 400 $0.66, 9:45's 1.1K $0.6600/99 (900)/00, 9:46's 500 $0.6740/$0.6600/1, 9:48's b/a 100:103 $0.66/$0.6760, 9:59's 1K $0.6683, 10:00's 700 $0.6683/06 (400)/5, 10:01's 100 $0.6606, 10:02's 100 $0.6607, 10:02's b/a 200:100 $0.6606/$0.67 (bids rising), 10:03's 700 $0.6611 (500)/12, 10:04's 200 $0.6615/8, 10:05's 200 $0.6623/90. The period ended on 10:06's 1.3K $0.6625/6 (400)/7 (300)/8 (300).
10:07-10:42 began very low/no-volume wide $0.6518/$0.67 on 10:07's 1.4K $0.6629 (1.1K)/8/$0.6518. B/a at 10:11 as 200:100 $0.6517/$0.67, 10:19 500:100 $0.6518/$0.67, 10:32 200:100 $0.6518/$0.67. The period ended on 10:42's 100 $0.6615.
10:43-11:13 began a very low/medium-volume collapse after 10:45's 75.6K $0.6530 (44.6K incl 35.9K blk)/$0.6517/$0.6516/$0.65 (32.1K incl 10.4K blk). 10:51's 5.5K did 5.5K $0.65 (200)/$0.64 (5.3K). B/a at 10:54 was 1K:500 $0.64/7. 10:57's 9.6K did $0.64 (300)/$0.63 (9.2K). B/a at 11:05 was 121:10 $0.6409/$0.6636 (offers backed by presented 500 $0.67). The period ended on 11:13's 2.7K $0.6305 (1K)/2/00/$0.6256/1/0.
11:14-12:54 began an extremely low/no-volume climb, through 11:31, on 11:14's 100 $0.6250. B/a at 11:21 was 10.1K:600 $0.6250/$0.6399. 11:31's 100 $0.6691 kicked off extremelylow/no-volume $0.6501/$0.67, with slowly narrowing range. B/a at 11:46 was 100:595 $0.65/7, 12:04 300:10 $0.6500/50 (offers backed by presented 100 $0.6679 and 321 $0.6699), 12:20 200:100 $0.6404/$0.66, 12:30 200:200 $0.6404/$0.66, 12:48 100:200 $0.6404/$0.66. The period ended on 12:54's 100 $0.6594.
12:55-14:06 began extremelylow/no-volume $0.6414/$0.6599, with very slowly rising lows, on 12:55's 650 $0.6502 (450)/00. B/a at 13:00 was 300:900 $0.6404/$0.6599, 13:17 300:900 $0.6404/$0.6599, 13:32 200:10 $0.6406/$0.6636 (offers backed by presented 900 $0.6656), 13:44 300:200 $0.6406/$0.66, 14:02 300:300 $0.6406/$0.66. The period ended on 14:06's 1.1K $0.66.
14:07-16:00 began began with a short bump up on 14:07's 200 $0.6656 followed by a extremely low/no-volume decline and bounce back up. B/a at 14:09 was 200:700 $0.6406/$0.6656. 14:13's 200 hit $0.655 and 14:18's 155 did $0.643. B/a at 14:18 was 100:300 $0.6404/$0.66. 14:34's 111 did $0.653. B/a at 14:34 was 200:600 $0.6404/$0.66. 14:41's 200 did $0.6578/97. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.6401/$0.66 (low eventually became $0.64). B/a at 14:45 was 700:700 $0.64/6, 15:02 200:600 $0.64/6, 15:17 100:421 $0.6501/$0.6699, 15:32 1K:162 $0.64/6, 15:46 452:362 $0.64/6. The period and day end on 15:59's 956 $0.6590 (600)/$0.64 (252)/$0.6375 (100)/$0.63 (2), making the last 15:59 non-odd-lot trade of 100 $0.6375 the official close because the 16:00 closing trade was on odd-lot 15 shares for $0.6437.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 100,308, 53.09% of day's volume, with a $0.6521 VWAP. The count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is high, thanks to a few "larger larger trades". The VWAP is almost the same as the day's $0.6522.
Talk about a dead day - a 1:41 period with only 8.1K traded and a 1:12 period with 3.6K. The usual early high VWAPs are seen followed by the usual sag and then the run up into close trying to maintain some margin for next day's trading profits. Buy percentage tells the story for the first hour-and-a-quarter having the highest VWAPs and two of the three highest buy percentages. The rest of the day has movements of buy percentage and VWAPs relatively well coordinated.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:06 20891 $0.6527 $0.6760 $13,845.04 $0.6627 11.06% 19.80% Incl 09:41 $0.6600 4,200
10:42 15000 $0.6518 $0.6700 $9,892.01 $0.6595 7.94% 28.38%
11:13 99224 $0.6250 $0.6700 $64,270.53 $0.6477 52.52% 8.12% Incl 10:45 $0.6530 35,900 7,200 $0.6500 10,360
10:45 $0.6500 6,060 4,700
10:57 $0.6300 7,988
12:54 8163 $0.6250 $0.6700 $5,262.75 $0.6447 4.32% 10.20%
14:06 3550 $0.6414 $0.6600 $2,325.72 $0.6551 1.88% 11.78%
16:00 40631 $0.6375 $0.6656 $26,659.56 $0.6561 21.51% 22.24% Incl 15:30 $0.6600 15,000 15:40 4,900
15:52 $0.6502 4,000
As before, the low buy percentage and suspected intra-day price manipulation makes me think the ATM was in use.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
yesterday I said { Today would suggest consolidation, buts it's a fake IMO. I believe it's something related to the general market behavior on a Russell re-balancing day. }__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.90% -3.85% -2.03% -1.92% 50.23%
Prior 2.76% 1.56% -1.43% -4.27% -45.82%
A lower low, high and close on higher volume seems to confirm "fake consolidation" and suggests the down leg is still in progress and gaining strength. One thing that argues against that is seen on the minimal chart - last time down at this level a leg up magically appeared, presumably as a result of Cowan & Co. successfully moving the market to support ATM sales. There was probably some PR involved with part of it though. Sans a PR I don't know we could count on the re-appearance of that.
On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { the high pushed above the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance and was rejected, resulting in a close down near the mid-range of the channel, even using the 15:59 closing price. } Today the range and close were below the top support line confirming a break below support back into the descending channel. The rising volume would suggest gaining strength in the move down, but as mentioned above a leg up magically appeared last time we were in this range. I wouldn't rule out a re-occurrence of that behavior.
This may be supported by the fact that the low bottomed almost right on the experimental 13-period Bollinger band lower limit, $0.6237, at 11:13 and immediately began a climb back up to go flattish just a bit below the early higher range, almost as if planned. DOH! For that reason I'll not express worry about "pushing" the lower limit - I expect it won't be allowed to continue down at this range.
Th fast EMA, $0.6514, continued falling and is well below the slow EMA, $0.6762. It's been below since 4/19. At some point it's got to reverse, right? Right now no sign of that happening though.
On my one-year chart, today's trade was again completely below the falling 10-day's $0.6917 (was $0.7001) and the falling 50-day SMA's $0.6891 (was $0.6920) and today topped barely below, and traded completely below, the still-falling 20-day SMA at $0.6761.
It appears the 20-day SMA will cross below the 50-day in just a day or two.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator I watch. Everything but MFI (untrusted by me) was below neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic were showing oversold.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum, Williams %R (still oversold) and full stochastic (exited oversold, barely). Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6237 and $0.7629 ($0.6323 and $0.7593 yesterday), continued diverging with yesterday's slightly rising mid-point flipping to slightly declining.
All in, improvement in some of the oscillators suggest a turn might be coming while the rising volume on lower high, low and close suggest the opposite. Bearishness is also suggested by the falling SMAs, with the 20 below the 50 and the 10 about to cross below. If we could count on what happened last time we were in this range (mentioned above) we would swing to bullish. I don't think it's safe to rely on that though. We could also look at the bounce off the lower Bollinger limit early in the day a conclude that might be bullish. I guess the tie-breaker will be the intra-day breakdown above.
With the buy percentages for all the periods being so low, I think the most likely near-term movement is further weakening.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and both are well below the range needed to suggest any near-term upside.
The spread widened and moved further into a range suggesting near-term movement is likely, my guess being moving lower based on the percentages for short sales and buy.
The VWAP continued weakening, leaving us with only two positives in nine days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady at 14 negatives and 10 positives for the second consecutive day. Change since 05/22 is $0.0140, 2.20%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1251%, 0.1050%, 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, and 0.6348%.
All in, everything here suggests near-term continued weakening.
Bill
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