I prefer the "go it alone" scenario myself but the management team history seems geared more toward hit the market and get bought. I did a quick ballpark run up of costs to date for SPORT and came in at roughly $400M so far, with close to another $100M when you add the $70M of getting to the finish line and add in things like marketing and building a sales team, contracting vendors for volume production, etc. If we call it $500M actual cost to get to market including regulatory approvals, that alone should put us in the $1.5B to $2B range in value. If early units get the rave reviews they should for things like cost, ease of operation, lower per-case costs, and availability to a wider range of customers (smaller hospitals and local surgi-centers as well as bigger hospitals who like the added flexibility, portability, and maybe some that are sick of getting screwed by ISRG), that could easily drive company value into the $4-5B range within a year or two of initial sales. As usual, just my opinion, but I think there is a solid rationale for this, not just a gut feeling.
Some hospitals love their ISRG reps and some really really don't. Merely having a rep who the hospital doesn't like can have them running for a better option at the drop of a hat, once the better option exists. Titan should be that better option.
To get to the original question, without RS we are sitting on about 300M shares, and an average figure from the above scenarios is $3B, so $10/share at current share count, or maybe $8/share with further dilution to reach the finish line. I would love to retire in 4 years.
