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Re: rfarmer post# 2405

Friday, 06/23/2017 7:17:25 AM

Friday, June 23, 2017 7:17:25 AM

Post# of 4715
95% plus chance the deal goes through.
1 - I cannot understate this enough.
2 - AT&T must have Fibertower's spectrum.
3 - The FCC wants AT&T to have Fibertower's spectrum.
4 - So how do they make this happen where all loose ends are resolved?
5 - The CCA and T-Mobile do not have a big bat with the FCC.
6 - T-Mobile(Germany) and Sprint(Japan). Now think of what the current administartion is pushing…America.
7 - If AT&T does not get Fibertower's spectrum then they are 2-3 years behind Verizon in the 5G push.
8 - Then that will allow Verizon to ease up as needed instead of keeping the accelerator to the floor.
9 - The FCC want's Verizon and AT&T to push 5G as hard and as fast as possible.
10 - It means jobs, it means advanced services, it means productivity, it means a huge chest pumping moment for the FCC.
11 - The only other players out there that could bring this to market yet would still lag AT&T and Verizon are a Comcast or Charter.
12 - I would assume that Verizon is eyeing Comcast first for the Content and second for the pipes. FCC may already have the details on it.
13 - Back to point #4
14 - What needs to be done so that this deal can move forward with next to zero encumbrances?
15 - On per pops basis $2.1B gets you to $.80 on the dollar vs. the STRP final sale.
16 - Given the timing of when things happened I very much think $2.1B is a stretch but you never know if the FCC can step in.
17 - Is the FCC wanting to inflate some value for their future auctions and possibly having ATT throw them a payment to save face in all of this.
18 - At this point the FCC knows ATT has to have FTWR, FCC wants ATT to have FTWR.
19 - Could a deal get done at $2.1B and ATT throws 10% or $200M at the FCC to have some equal comps with the STRP deal…it is possible.
20 - So you have $2.1B left. The dealmakers behind this have to have a number in mind to essentially make the common go away.
21 - So what numbers leave everyone happy and willing to part ways?
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