Nice post, east coast and I agree
It's a good reminder that the man behind Ronin (Stafford III) is a Monoclonal Ab guy. If you're a PPHM stockholder, you're a Monoclonal Ab guy, too.
I agree that JS III is most likely after a seat at the table. I think he's interested in helping monetize the pipeline and I don't think, frankly, he'll get much opposition from the present BOD. PPHM has advanced enough already that it needs more help.
Many here will disagree with that, but we're moving toward profitability in 12 months, and the game is getting more complex with the forthcoming NCCN trials. PPHM would benefit from his years at Xencor, where he really helped.
It could be a long term play, certainly, but I can't help thinking that even if an RS occurs, some serious move could occur afterwards.
Geo stated that maybe Dart and Stafford could take the company private after the RS. Hadn't thought of that, but it seems remote.
More interesting is Stafford's validation of PPHM science with cold, hard cash. TUTES often can't buy in without a $5 base, so that will come if an RS does occur.
I guess the question is this: let's say you have 49,000 shares of PPHM at 0.58 which = $28240. Post-RS, you have 7,000 shares at 4.06 which = $28240.
But now, the "July Surprise" is announced which drives the pps to $19.47. Now you have $136,290. Three months later, the pps is $37.89, which gives you $265,020. The pre-RS pps would have been $5.40 to give you this same amount. Meaning, we would have completely recovered from the September 2012 Black Monday, even post-RS.
But we're not finished yet. With a nice base in place, the big Pharma boys can go to their stockholders and say, "Look, the PPHM Bavi business triples our responder footprint. We need to finally bite the bullet and buy this company before those bastards at Gilead get into this."
Now remember, outstanding shares are NOT 330 million as they are now. No, they're 47 million. (We're soon profitable, so the ATM runs, but not too much. Make outstanding shares 50 million.) So an offer nicely north of Gilead's Manhasset 12B offer, let's say 19B, appears. OK, under those terms, each share now comes in at $380 flat.
Take the post-RS 7,000 shares mentioned above, and the forlorn post-RS shareholder takes home $2.66M.
In essense, PPHM becomes the new Intercept stock. Why? Because it triples the damn responder anti-PD1 footprint, that's why.
The point remains that if Bavi can make Big Pharma billions more by conditioning the tumor enviroment for anti-XYZers, we have nothing to worry about, whatever may happen in the next 2 weeks.
Best to all, (especially frustrated longs)
Joe Six Pack
