Vericel Corp. (VCEL)

[commoncentsinvestor]

Why VCEL is a sure thing to go to $10 or more.

In 2016 Carticel did 1000 surgeries.

Carticel was approved ONLY for 2nd Line treatment. Mainly after arthroscopy or microfracture failed.
MACI is approved for 1st Line treatment.

Carticel was approved for Femoral condyle only.
MACI is approved for all cartilage defects including Patella, single or multiple defects with no limitation on size, and with or without bone involvement.

Carticel had maximum approved surgeons of about 140.
MACI already has over 200 approved surgeons and the procedure is much easier with significant reduction in surgical time. To surgeons, time is money.

With all these advantages it is CERTAIN that there will be many more MACI surgeries than Carticel. According to Colangelo, the market for MACI surgeries is 10,000 to 20,000 per year. Let's call it 15,000.

If MACI does just 20% it would be 3,000 per year. At $44,000 per, it would amount to $132M in revenues. I believe break even currently for Vericel is around $85M. That would leave an overage of $47M at a 50% profit would amount to a net profit of $23M or about .70 EPS. A 20PE would put the share price at $14.

That, of course, is without any contribution from Epicel, ixCell, or the CTI partnership.

$10 per share is not a matter of IF, but only WHEN. Those with patience could end up with life changing profits.