Thanks NQ...your recent ideas and info on sector rotation really is compelling and has invigorated my thoughts. We are both similarly 401K oriented (almost exclusively for me) and we both have focused on the Fidelity Sector funds because of the parameters of the Fidelity 401K's and because it is a good way to get at a broad cross-section of the market.
Regarding the spreadsheets I have included in the intro, my original intuitive sense was that looking at the sector funds across different timeframes might lead to a productive way to manage a portfolio. However, I really wasn't using the data in a meaningful way.
What your work has prompted me to do is to look at the sector funds more closely in a wider range of time frames. The spreadsheet I constructed uses the actual Fidelity Sector funds plus some handpicked other Fidelity funds. I have set it up for timeframes of one day, one week, one month and then every month out to one year. The mechanics of the sheet is that it uses one day (today - previous day), 5 trading days per week and 21 trading days per month. So the weeks and month are not exact calendar months but pretty close.
When I am in Excel each column header is a sort button so I can sort on a single click for any time frame. The four images I included this week in the intro represent 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and 12 months.
My initial thought is to start looking at the top 5 or 10 funds at three months and see how the leadership changes. Although I must say that two months is looking more enticing...maybe even one month.
If I look at my current portfolio I have:
FSPHX - Fidelity Healthcare my best holding in a very long time
FRESX - Fidelity Real Estate which is picking up over the last few weeks
FUSEX - Fidelity Index Fund
VGPMX - Vanguard Precious Metals - a doing nothing holding that I sort of think as insurance for a global shock
The goal is then to hold a portfolio of four or five funds that are on trends stronger than FSUEX.
My thought at the end of the month is to rebalance starting with jettisoning VGPMX and FUSEX and replacing with two of the top five funds at either two or three months. The bigger move for me will be to allocate more from the money market to actual fund holdings.
Come next weekend I will do a little more and modify the spreadsheet to look at one week, two weeks, three weeks and then one through twelve months and in effect study the early phase of trends or market leadership.
For my own sake, I think I can get a lot of use out of the new spreadsheets. The nice thing is once they are set up the updates are quick to do. If you find these useful let me know. Or if you have any suggestions let me know. I will keep all the other info going as well.
By the way, I have looked at Sector Surfer quite a bit and have played in their sandbox. It really looks like a very useful and potentially very profitable tool.
It was this comment on your original post that really spurred my modified spreadsheets: "To determine the top fund, the lower right hand corner is a rate of return that uses current information, and this information can be had without a subscription. It is shown numerically, and you have to look them all over to find the sector fund with the highest rate of return over the time period selected."
Thank you and regards
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