I've done enough of these (not a ton but between 5-10) in that these mispricings happen. BTW my range is in the $.18-$.28 range similar to others.
Here is the reason this is not at $.18 today.
1. While there are lots of shares outstanding the market opportunity is not enough for a HF to spend lots of time on these sorts of issues. Think of it this way - a HF would probably have to have a small team of junior analysts going over every BK filing and weird esoteric group. Even then they are not going to make an investment in this that is over 5% of the float or probably more than a few % of their investments.
Right now the world is hard for HF who are losing clients (outside of the biggest HFs) due to the shift to passive mgmt from active. They aren't going to spend time on this.
2. When is the payout going to occur (if at all). I could easily see mgmt make the case to distribute 50% in 3-4 months and state they need the rest of the money to sell the other few assets. I've watched mgmt do this before and draw it out 2 years and spend $8M to sell a business for $1M. Distgusting but legal.
Having this not be a full asset sale is probelmatic for some.
If this rerates which I hope it will it will move on some random day. I watched a stock like this sit at $.30 for 40 days even though the stock said it was worth $75-$1.00. Then suddenly it moved to $.70 on a random day with no news.
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