THE VACUUM
Volume Is Diminishing
Support Is Weakening
Vacuum Is Developing
April Numbers Will Probably Be Released
On This Friday After The Market Closes
Hoping The Weekend Will Buffer Results
=================================
THE 728 CONTROL NUMBER
The Control Number Is The Average Units
Per W-Day Within Each Six Month Period.
From Jan-June, And Then From July-Dec
These Periods Are Then Compared To
Each Other As They Roll Forward.
728 Is The Most Recent Control Number,
Which Shows Both The Topping-Out In Growth
And The Current Contraction, When Compared
To The Previous Six Month Period.
Individual Months Within Each Period Can Be
Monitored To Detect The Trend In That Period,
To Whether It Is Keeping-Up Or Falling-Behind
The Established Preceding Control Period.
Mo ------- Rx -------- Rev ------ $/Rx ------ #
Prev Six Month Control # --------------- 625
Jan --- 15,500 --- $1.30M --- $84.00 --- 646
Feb --- 16,700 --- $1.10M --- $66.00 --- 696
Mar --- 18,600 --- $1.50M --- $83.00 --- 689
Apr --- 16,500 --- $1.40M --- $85.00 --- 635
May -- 17,500 --- $1.40M --- $80.00 --- 700
Jun --- 18,000 --- $1.70M --- $95.00 --- 692
All Months Exceed 625 Control #
Averaged 51 Extra Scripts Per W-Day
Now Creates A New 676 Control #
THEN ANOTHER GROWTH SPURT
New Six Month Control # --------------- 676
July --- 16,600 --- $1.50M --- $90.00 --- 664
Aug --- 20,000 --- $1.75M --- $87.00 --- 741
Sep --- 19,000 --- $1.60M --- $83.00 --- 760
Oct --- 18,600 --- $1.60M --- $86.00 --- 744
Nov --- 18,500 --- $1.70M --- $91.00 --- 771
Dec --- 18,000 --- $1.70M --- $95.00 --- 692
All But July Exceeds 676 Control #
Averaged 52 Extra Scripts Per W-Day
Now Creates A New 728 Control #
GROWTH HAS NOW FLATTENED
New Six Month Control # --------------- 728
Jan --- 17,500 --- $1.60M --- $91.00 --- 700
Feb --- 16,500 --- $1.50M --- $90.00 --- 717
Mar --- 18,500 --- $1.75M --- $94.00 --- 685
Apr ------- ? ----------- ? ----------- ? -------- ?
W-Day 728 Control Number Not Being Met
Scripts Avg Has Decreased 28 Per W-Day
A Topping-Out & Contraction Is Setting In
TREND SHOWS CONTRACTION
WHEN COMPARING 728 CONSTANT
A Number Above 728 = POS GROWTH
A Number Around 728 = NO GROWTH
A Number Below 728 = NEG GROWTH
=================================
MONTHS ARE FALLING BEHIND
Jan+Feb+Mar Are Falling Behind The 728 .
So April Needs To Start Picking Up The Pace.
In Order To Average Out The First 4 Months,
To Maintain The Neutral 728 Control Number,
April Then Needs To Now Come In At 812 .
NEEDED TO HELP CATCH UP
Scripts: 20,300 / 25 W-Days = 812
Rx Rev: 20,300 X $91.79 = $1,863,337
Estimated Service Rev = $10,000
Total Revenue = $1,873,337
It Is Unlikely That April Alone Can Average
Out The First 4 Months To Meet The 728 .
To Start Gaining Ground, April Needs To
At Least Maintain A Number Above 728 .
Then Show Gradual Monthly Increases.
Obviously: Revenue Calculations Also
Depend On The $ / Script. Using The
Calculated Rolling Average Of $91.79 .
=================================
A WHOLE DIFFERENT SUBJECT
FY-2017 Revenue Projection Of $22M
Now, Forget About What It Takes For Growth.
And Just Focus On What It Takes To Achieve
The Goal Of Obtaining $22M In Revenues.
First, I Am Going To Be Generous And Assume
That By The End Of This Year They Will Have
Averaged $15M Per Month, Or $180K Per Year,
In Regards To The "Service Revenue".
Based On $91.79 Per Script, This Calculation
Would Give An Avg Control Number Of 785 .
That Means They Need 785 Units Per W-Day.
Since Jan+Feb+Mar Is Already Falling Behind,
They Need To Now Catch Up. So April Would
Now Have To Produce 1038 Units Per W-Day.
But Obviously, One Month Will Not Catch-Up.
So If You Take Into Account A "Building-Up"
Of Units Throughout The Year, Similar To
Using Last Year As A Guideline, Then The
April Control Number Needed Per W-Day
Would Be Closer To 760 ... This Replaces
And Updates The Old 859 Number.
AT A MINIMUM THIS IS NEEDED FOR
APRIL TO STAY ON TRACK FOR $22M
Scripts: 19,000 / 25 W-Days = 760
Rx Rev: 19,000 X $91.79 = $1,744,010
Estimated Service Rev = $12,000
Total Rev Needed = $1,756,010
The Months That Follow Would Also
Have To Gradually Increase As Well :
MONTHS FOLLOWING SHOULD
LOOK SOMETHING LIKE THIS
Apr: 19,000 Units = $1.744M = 760
May: 20,000 Units = $1.836M = 769
Jun: 20,500 Units = $1.882M = 788
July: 19,100 Units = $1.753M = 764
Aug: 22,500 Units = $2.065M = 833
Sep: 21,500 Units = $1.974M = 860
Oct: 21,100 Units = $1.937M = 844
Nov: 21,000 Units = $1.928M = 875
Dec: 20,500 Units = $1.882M = 820
January Thru March = $4.82M
April Thru December = $17.0M
Service For The Year = $180K
Total FY Revenue = $22M
Again: Revenue Calculations Depend
On The $ / Script, Currrently Using A
Calculated Rolling Average Of $91.79 .
=================================
WHAT ABOUT APRIL NUMBERS
JUST A FUN PREDICTION
FOR THE APRIL NUMBERS
Scripts: 16,425 / 25 W-Days = 657
Rx Rev: 16,425 X $91.79 = $1,507,651
Estimated Service Rev = $10,000
Total Rev = $1,517,651
Now, It Should Not Be As Bad As 657 !
But Not Near The Neutral 728 Number.
Definitely Not The Catch-Up 812 Number.
Not The $22M Rev Build-Up 760 Number.
Not The $22M Rev Catch-Up 1038 Number.
=================================
FALLING BEHIND PROJECTIONS
Reality Is Falling Way Behind Projections
* No Matter How The Data Is Perceived *
April Numbers Will Probably Be Released
On This Friday After The Market Closes
Hoping The Weekend Will Buffer Results
JMO
