Friday, May 26, 2017 11:14:00 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/25 2017 EOD
All things considered, I leave my thought of possibly entering short-term consolidation again on the trash heap. I now believe weakening to continue the down leg seems most likely.
In aggregate, today was a very flattish day with only a few excursions above $0.65 and none below $0.64 until the set up for a push higher was done with a 14:25 drop to $0.6301, after which we had the usual climb back up, but only to $0.6398.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1K:1K $0.62/5.
09:30-11:18 opened the day with a 144 sell for $0.64. B/a just after open was 9.9K:1.4K $0.6400/99. Then came no trades through 09:50, but for 9:43's odd-lot 10 share $0.6401. B/a at 9:47 was 317:220 $0.6401/99 (bids flipping $0.6401 x 317 and $0.64 x 9.9K). Then came 9:51's 100 $0.6499, 9:52's b/a 100:1.1K $0.6401/$0.65, 9:59's 4.9K $0.64 (4.8K)/$0.65, 10:00's 100 $0.6451, 10:00's b/a 339:1.6K $0.6401/$0.65, 10:09's 100 $0.6451, 10:15's b/a 1.7K:504 $0.6451/$0.65 (bids flipping with $0.6450 x 200), 10:19's 8.3K $0.65 (5K)/$0.6450 (2.2K)/00 (1.1K), 10:20's 200 $0.6450/01, 10:21's 400 $0.6449, 10:24's b/a 2.7K:1K $0.6403/$0.65 (bids flipping with $0.6402 x 1.1K), 10:25's 4.8K $0.65 (4K)/$0.6402.
Then began extremely low/no-volume $0.6402/$0.65. B/a at 10:32 was 2.7K:620 $0.6403/$0.65. There were no more trades through 10:50. B/a at 10:47 was 1.6K:520 $0.6403/$0.65, 11:00 1.4K:720 $0.6403/$0.65, 11:17 100:500 $0.6404/$0.65. The period ended on 11:18's volume interruption of 8K $0.65 (1,6K)/$0.6407/%0.65 (5.4K)/$0.6407 .../$0.65.
11:19-13:21, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6402/$0.6550, with rapidly falling highs, on 10:21's 8.9K $0.65 (1.9K)/$0.6476/$0.65 (5.9K)/$0.6402/$0.6550/$0.6402. B/a at 11:28 was 600:5.8K $0.6402/$0.6550. High at 11:38 was down to $0.6517. B/a at 11:47 was 500:5.8K $0.6402/$0.6550. 11:51's 5.1K $0.65 (5K)/$0.6402 brought b/a to 300:2.2K $0.6402/93 with falling offers and highs down to $0.65. B/a at 12:02 was 300:2.2K $0.6402/57, 12:17 500:2.1K $0.6402/50. At 12:20 highs were down to $0.6443. B/a at 12:32 was 500:1.1K $0.6402/94. At 12:32 highs were down to $0.6404. Volume was interrupted by 12:47's 6.5K $0.6402/3. B/a at 12:47 was 500:1.4K $0.6402/4, 13:02 225:1.4K $0.6402/3, 13:17 225:1.1K $0.6402/3. The period ended on 13:21's 10.1K $0.6403 (2.2K)/02/03/00 (7.1K).
13:22-14:24 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6400/1 ??:?? on 13:22's 3.6K $0.6400/01 (5K)/00. B/a at 13:32 was 2.7K:1K $0.6400/1, 14:03 2.3K:1.1K $0.6400/1, 14:18 2.3K:1.2K $0.6400/1. The period ended on 14:24's 2K $0.6401.
14:25-14:47, after one no-trades minute, did a big drop on 14:26's 5.6K $0.6400 (~4.7K)/$0.6301 and began extremely low/no-volume $0.6340/9, with falling range. B/a at 14:32 was 300:1.2K $0.6301/67, 14:40 300:2.5K $0.6301/49 (offers falling). The period ended on 14:47's 100 $0.6313.
14:48-15:29, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6302/3 on 14:51's 1.5K $0.6302. B/a at 15:02 was 1K:600 $0.6302/3, 15:17 1K:1.1K $0.6302/3. The period ended on 15:29's 600 $0.6303.
15:30-15:59 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6305/98 after 15:30's 100 $0.6532, 15:33's 10.2K $0.6306 (10K blk)/5, 15:34's 1.5K $0.6314 (899)/05 and 15:35's 5.5K $0.6397 (5K)/05. B/a at 15:34 was 19K1.1K $0.6305/98 (trying to force rise into close?), 15:47 19K:600 $0.6305/69 (offers falling rapidly). The period and day ended on 15:59's 850 $0.6305 (200)/15 (250)/40 (100)/05 (300), making the official close $0.6305 because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade.
However, there was a 16:00 "Form T" 200 $0.60, -4.84% below the last 15:59 $0.6305 x 100 trade. This trade will complete sometime in the next three days. I bet tomorrow.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 47,900, 40.90% of day's volume, with a $0.6413 VWAP. The count seems a bit high for day's trade volume. The percentage of day's trade is quite high. The VWAP is only marginally above the day's $0.6411, leading me to think it was not retailers taking shares. Probably shorters and/or MMs doing covering buys but we'll never know. The short interest report linked yesterday would suggest that shorters should be doing covering buys.
This would fit with yesterday's { I would not read any of this as a bullish indication. Rather it's an indication, I think, of shorters continuing to lock in profits in preparation for any future swing upward, at which time they can short again, sans a major positive catalyst. } That's also supported by the lower VWAP (see below).
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
I said yesterday { ... I think the OLH improvements should be ignored, especially if we also factor in the manipulation that evidence has been suggesting is occurring for a while now. ... which suggests no strength in the down direction. This would fit with my near-term "sag" or "grind lower" assessment voiced yesterday in the top of the post summary. } Today's behavior and VWAP both fit with this "sag" scenario.
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { we traded almost completely above the former descending short-term resistance (falling orange line) and closed above it for the second day. Conventional TA says this confirms a breakout from that trend. I can't disagree but I moderate my optimism about that with the volume and the fact that we could just ride the line lower, giving a "grind lower". I can't yet guess if that is likely, but the longer-term and recent behavior would suggest it is quite likely. } Today did the same trade almost completely above the descending (now) support (falling orange line) and so far fits the "sag" scenario and the "could just ride the line lower" scenario. With the volume up on this down day I think it likely that continues a bit longer.
The slow EMA continued to decline, and the fast EMA, which two days ago had ticked upward (thanks to that phony close), also declined and remained well below the slow. Both have accelerated, the fast to a greater degree than the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0208 (was $0.0184).
Trading range was generally centered slightly above the fast EMA and the $0.655 high almost hit the slow EMA's $0.6584.
For the fourth day the low is "pushing" the experimental 13-period lower Bollinger band limit. We know that history suggests this doesn't bode well.
The close was again above the descending short-term resistance but below the $0.64 which formerly provided some support. The temporary reprieve from the down leg which had begun seems to be over. That fits with my "grind lower" thesis.
Yesterday I noted, regarding that thesis, { ... which may ultimately prove incorrect if we don't go to ~$0.60. }. Today we had a "form t" trade at 16:00 for 200 shares at $0.60. This suggests either I'm already correct on hitting $0.60, which I suggested several days back was a possibility, or we are likely to hit it soon as these sorts of trades of presage future action.
On my one-year chart, for the ninth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high penetrated, for the ninth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6467. Today's apparently non-manipulated close was below the 10-day SMA for the second consecutive day.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI, momentum, and Williams %R. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (still oversold) and ADX-related (marginal). Everything is still below neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and Williams %R. Improvement occurred in full stochastic and ADX-related was flat.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6307 and $0.6671 ($0.6346 and $0.6686 yesterday), switched from converging to diverging as the lower limit switched to declining, and faster than the upper limit declines, while the upper limit's rate of decline slowed. The mid-point is falling.
All in, best case seems re-entry to consolidation but I think most likely is we continue the sag lower, likely riding the descending short-term resistance (falling orange line) down.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage is about in the middle of my desired range (needs re-check), not bad. The buy percentage gave up yesterday's strength (recall I didn't trust it) and moved into "no-man's land", not giving us a clue. Applying the trend though, as well as history, my best SWAG would be near-term weakness is suggested by this combination.
The spread narrowed and is just a bit above what would suggest consolidation. That presumes we ignore that 200-share $0.60 "form t" trade which would make the spread 9.17%, strongly suggesting movement. With our trend it would likely be lower.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements again had 17 negatives and 7 positives, making it 8 of 9 days at 17 and 7. Change since 04/21 is -$0.1140, -15.09%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6688%, -0.7140%, -0.8520%, -0.8128%, -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, and -0.6735%.
All in, the continued weakening of the VWAP and short and buy percentages moves me to leave yesterday's continued consolidation though and lean toward weakening to continue the down leg before we actually start short-term consolidation again.
Bill
All things considered, I leave my thought of possibly entering short-term consolidation again on the trash heap. I now believe weakening to continue the down leg seems most likely.
In aggregate, today was a very flattish day with only a few excursions above $0.65 and none below $0.64 until the set up for a push higher was done with a 14:25 drop to $0.6301, after which we had the usual climb back up, but only to $0.6398.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1K:1K $0.62/5.
09:30-11:18 opened the day with a 144 sell for $0.64. B/a just after open was 9.9K:1.4K $0.6400/99. Then came no trades through 09:50, but for 9:43's odd-lot 10 share $0.6401. B/a at 9:47 was 317:220 $0.6401/99 (bids flipping $0.6401 x 317 and $0.64 x 9.9K). Then came 9:51's 100 $0.6499, 9:52's b/a 100:1.1K $0.6401/$0.65, 9:59's 4.9K $0.64 (4.8K)/$0.65, 10:00's 100 $0.6451, 10:00's b/a 339:1.6K $0.6401/$0.65, 10:09's 100 $0.6451, 10:15's b/a 1.7K:504 $0.6451/$0.65 (bids flipping with $0.6450 x 200), 10:19's 8.3K $0.65 (5K)/$0.6450 (2.2K)/00 (1.1K), 10:20's 200 $0.6450/01, 10:21's 400 $0.6449, 10:24's b/a 2.7K:1K $0.6403/$0.65 (bids flipping with $0.6402 x 1.1K), 10:25's 4.8K $0.65 (4K)/$0.6402.
Then began extremely low/no-volume $0.6402/$0.65. B/a at 10:32 was 2.7K:620 $0.6403/$0.65. There were no more trades through 10:50. B/a at 10:47 was 1.6K:520 $0.6403/$0.65, 11:00 1.4K:720 $0.6403/$0.65, 11:17 100:500 $0.6404/$0.65. The period ended on 11:18's volume interruption of 8K $0.65 (1,6K)/$0.6407/%0.65 (5.4K)/$0.6407 .../$0.65.
11:19-13:21, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6402/$0.6550, with rapidly falling highs, on 10:21's 8.9K $0.65 (1.9K)/$0.6476/$0.65 (5.9K)/$0.6402/$0.6550/$0.6402. B/a at 11:28 was 600:5.8K $0.6402/$0.6550. High at 11:38 was down to $0.6517. B/a at 11:47 was 500:5.8K $0.6402/$0.6550. 11:51's 5.1K $0.65 (5K)/$0.6402 brought b/a to 300:2.2K $0.6402/93 with falling offers and highs down to $0.65. B/a at 12:02 was 300:2.2K $0.6402/57, 12:17 500:2.1K $0.6402/50. At 12:20 highs were down to $0.6443. B/a at 12:32 was 500:1.1K $0.6402/94. At 12:32 highs were down to $0.6404. Volume was interrupted by 12:47's 6.5K $0.6402/3. B/a at 12:47 was 500:1.4K $0.6402/4, 13:02 225:1.4K $0.6402/3, 13:17 225:1.1K $0.6402/3. The period ended on 13:21's 10.1K $0.6403 (2.2K)/02/03/00 (7.1K).
13:22-14:24 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6400/1 ??:?? on 13:22's 3.6K $0.6400/01 (5K)/00. B/a at 13:32 was 2.7K:1K $0.6400/1, 14:03 2.3K:1.1K $0.6400/1, 14:18 2.3K:1.2K $0.6400/1. The period ended on 14:24's 2K $0.6401.
14:25-14:47, after one no-trades minute, did a big drop on 14:26's 5.6K $0.6400 (~4.7K)/$0.6301 and began extremely low/no-volume $0.6340/9, with falling range. B/a at 14:32 was 300:1.2K $0.6301/67, 14:40 300:2.5K $0.6301/49 (offers falling). The period ended on 14:47's 100 $0.6313.
14:48-15:29, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6302/3 on 14:51's 1.5K $0.6302. B/a at 15:02 was 1K:600 $0.6302/3, 15:17 1K:1.1K $0.6302/3. The period ended on 15:29's 600 $0.6303.
15:30-15:59 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6305/98 after 15:30's 100 $0.6532, 15:33's 10.2K $0.6306 (10K blk)/5, 15:34's 1.5K $0.6314 (899)/05 and 15:35's 5.5K $0.6397 (5K)/05. B/a at 15:34 was 19K1.1K $0.6305/98 (trying to force rise into close?), 15:47 19K:600 $0.6305/69 (offers falling rapidly). The period and day ended on 15:59's 850 $0.6305 (200)/15 (250)/40 (100)/05 (300), making the official close $0.6305 because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade.
However, there was a 16:00 "Form T" 200 $0.60, -4.84% below the last 15:59 $0.6305 x 100 trade. This trade will complete sometime in the next three days. I bet tomorrow.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 47,900, 40.90% of day's volume, with a $0.6413 VWAP. The count seems a bit high for day's trade volume. The percentage of day's trade is quite high. The VWAP is only marginally above the day's $0.6411, leading me to think it was not retailers taking shares. Probably shorters and/or MMs doing covering buys but we'll never know. The short interest report linked yesterday would suggest that shorters should be doing covering buys.
Generally, the movements of buy percentage and VWAP were relatively well correlated. The behavior after 14:24 reflects the typical early higher trading range followed by weakening, flat, and then an attempt to push up going into the close beginning around 15:30. That was a fail iMO as the highs did no better than come back up to the flat area preceding the fall.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
11:18 33098 $0.6400 $0.6500 $21,381.97 $0.6460 28.26% 54.21% Incl 09:59 $0.6400 4,000 10:19 $0.6500 5,000
11:18 $0.6500 5,400
13:21 37221 $0.6400 $0.6550 $23,972.19 $0.6441 31.79% 48.33% Incl 11:51 $0.6500 5,000 12:47 $0.6403 4,200
13:21 $0.6400 4,300
14:24 13069 $0.6400 $0.6401 $8,365.10 $0.6401 11.16% 51.99% Incl 13:22 $0.6401 5,000
14:47 6640 $0.6301 $0.6400 $4,234.11 $0.6377 5.67% 48.40%
15:29 4740 $0.6302 $0.6303 $2,987.29 $0.6302 4.05% 47.43%
15:59 21149 $0.6305 $0.6398 $13,385.31 $0.6329 18.06% 44.13% Incl 15:33 $0.6306 10,000 15:35 $0.6397 5,000
16:00 200 $0.6000 $0.6000 $120.00 $0.6000 0.17% 44.05%
This would fit with yesterday's { I would not read any of this as a bullish indication. Rather it's an indication, I think, of shorters continuing to lock in profits in preparation for any future swing upward, at which time they can short again, sans a major positive catalyst. } That's also supported by the lower VWAP (see below).
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Note that a 16:00 "form t" trade of 200 shares for $0.60, 4.84% below the 15:59 close at $0.6305, would make the low movement -4.88%. I suspect this trade was a manipulative trade attempting to cause sells so that someone can buy really cheap. We'll see.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.54% -0.11% -0.70% -1.94% 24.67%
Prior 1.56% 0.13% 0.46% -1.06% -32.33%
I said yesterday { ... I think the OLH improvements should be ignored, especially if we also factor in the manipulation that evidence has been suggesting is occurring for a while now. ... which suggests no strength in the down direction. This would fit with my near-term "sag" or "grind lower" assessment voiced yesterday in the top of the post summary. } Today's behavior and VWAP both fit with this "sag" scenario.
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { we traded almost completely above the former descending short-term resistance (falling orange line) and closed above it for the second day. Conventional TA says this confirms a breakout from that trend. I can't disagree but I moderate my optimism about that with the volume and the fact that we could just ride the line lower, giving a "grind lower". I can't yet guess if that is likely, but the longer-term and recent behavior would suggest it is quite likely. } Today did the same trade almost completely above the descending (now) support (falling orange line) and so far fits the "sag" scenario and the "could just ride the line lower" scenario. With the volume up on this down day I think it likely that continues a bit longer.
The slow EMA continued to decline, and the fast EMA, which two days ago had ticked upward (thanks to that phony close), also declined and remained well below the slow. Both have accelerated, the fast to a greater degree than the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0208 (was $0.0184).
Trading range was generally centered slightly above the fast EMA and the $0.655 high almost hit the slow EMA's $0.6584.
For the fourth day the low is "pushing" the experimental 13-period lower Bollinger band limit. We know that history suggests this doesn't bode well.
The close was again above the descending short-term resistance but below the $0.64 which formerly provided some support. The temporary reprieve from the down leg which had begun seems to be over. That fits with my "grind lower" thesis.
Yesterday I noted, regarding that thesis, { ... which may ultimately prove incorrect if we don't go to ~$0.60. }. Today we had a "form t" trade at 16:00 for 200 shares at $0.60. This suggests either I'm already correct on hitting $0.60, which I suggested several days back was a possibility, or we are likely to hit it soon as these sorts of trades of presage future action.
On my one-year chart, for the ninth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our high penetrated, for the ninth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6467. Today's apparently non-manipulated close was below the 10-day SMA for the second consecutive day.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI, momentum, and Williams %R. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (still oversold) and ADX-related (marginal). Everything is still below neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and Williams %R. Improvement occurred in full stochastic and ADX-related was flat.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6307 and $0.6671 ($0.6346 and $0.6686 yesterday), switched from converging to diverging as the lower limit switched to declining, and faster than the upper limit declines, while the upper limit's rate of decline slowed. The mid-point is falling.
All in, best case seems re-entry to consolidation but I think most likely is we continue the sag lower, likely riding the descending short-term resistance (falling orange line) down.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage is about in the middle of my desired range (needs re-check), not bad. The buy percentage gave up yesterday's strength (recall I didn't trust it) and moved into "no-man's land", not giving us a clue. Applying the trend though, as well as history, my best SWAG would be near-term weakness is suggested by this combination.
The spread narrowed and is just a bit above what would suggest consolidation. That presumes we ignore that 200-share $0.60 "form t" trade which would make the spread 9.17%, strongly suggesting movement. With our trend it would likely be lower.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements again had 17 negatives and 7 positives, making it 8 of 9 days at 17 and 7. Change since 04/21 is -$0.1140, -15.09%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6688%, -0.7140%, -0.8520%, -0.8128%, -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, and -0.6735%.
All in, the continued weakening of the VWAP and short and buy percentages moves me to leave yesterday's continued consolidation though and lean toward weakening to continue the down leg before we actually start short-term consolidation again.
Bill
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